BTC: Proximity NUPL

Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Pro.

The net unrealized profit or loss of the supply near the price, as a share of its market value: 1 minus the Proximity Realized Price divided by the price.

Why use it. Measures how much the holders closest to the price stand to gain or lose, the ones most likely to react to the next move. How to read it. Above zero the nearby supply is in profit, below zero at a loss; the further from zero, the larger the paper gain or loss relative to the price.

Calculation. (price - Proximity Realized Price) / price, with the day's closing BTC/USD price. Every coin with a cost basis is weighted by how close its creation-day price is to the price P, with a Gaussian kernel in log price: weight = exp(-1/2 (ln(cost/P) / ln 1.1)^2), a 10% bandwidth, ignoring costs more than three bandwidths away (about 25% below to 33% above the price). This is CryptoKeyhole's own kernel, the same one as the Cost Basis Support-Resistance Index; another weighting gives a somewhat different level. The Proximity Realized Price is sum(coins x weight x cost) / sum(coins x weight); it is not drawn on a day with no coin inside the kernel. Coins created before 18 July 2010 have no cost basis and carry no weight. Cost basis resets whenever an output moves, so the levels mark where coins last moved on the blockchain, not what their owners paid. Computed by CryptoKeyhole from its own Bitcoin node's record of every unspent and spent output by creation day, with its own admitted daily BTC/USD prices. Daily from 18 July 2010. Each value describes the UTC day after its last block, valued at the day's closing price; the open day is a labelled partial, valued at the latest completed hour and updated through the day, and becomes final six blocks after the day's last block.