BTC: Proximity Premium
Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Pro.
How far the price sits above or below the Proximity Realized Price, measured in typical daily moves: the gap divided by the price's recent volatility.
Why use it. Dividing by volatility makes the gap comparable across calm and turbulent markets and across cycles: a 5% gap means more when the price moves 1% a day than when it moves 5%. How to read it. Positive: the price is above the cost of the nearby supply; negative: below it. Values of a few units mean the price has run several typical daily moves away from where nearby holders bought, an extreme in either direction.
Calculation. (price - Proximity Realized Price) / (price x s), where s is the standard deviation of the last 30 daily price returns (close over previous close - 1), with the day's closing BTC/USD price. Every coin with a cost basis is weighted by how close its creation-day price is to the price P, with a Gaussian kernel in log price: weight = exp(-1/2 (ln(cost/P) / ln 1.1)^2), a 10% bandwidth, ignoring costs more than three bandwidths away (about 25% below to 33% above the price). This is CryptoKeyhole's own kernel, the same one as the Cost Basis Support-Resistance Index; another weighting gives a somewhat different level. The Proximity Realized Price is sum(coins x weight x cost) / sum(coins x weight); it is not drawn on a day with no coin inside the kernel. Coins created before 18 July 2010 have no cost basis and carry no weight. Cost basis resets whenever an output moves, so the levels mark where coins last moved on the blockchain, not what their owners paid. The first 30 days of price history have no value. Computed by CryptoKeyhole from its own Bitcoin node's record of every unspent and spent output by creation day, with its own admitted daily BTC/USD prices. Daily from 18 July 2010. Each value describes the UTC day after its last block, valued at the day's closing price; the open day is a labelled partial, valued at the latest completed hour and updated through the day, and becomes final six blocks after the day's last block.