Correlations today
| Bitcoin against | 30 days | 90 days | Reading, 90 days | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ether (ETH) | +0.93 30 returns | +0.89 90 returns | very strong, positive | 25 Oct 2026 |
| Gold, tokenised (PAXG and XAUt) | +0.52 30 returns | +0.52 90 returns | moderate, positive | 25 Oct 2026 |
| US dollar against the euro | −0.20 22 returns | −0.30 65 returns | weak, negative | 23 Oct 2026 |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | +0.34 21 returns | −0.10 63 returns | little or none within the range chance alone gives | 23 Oct 2026 |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | +0.27 21 returns | −0.06 63 returns | little or none within the range chance alone gives | 23 Oct 2026 |
| German 10-year government bond yield | −0.12 22 returns | −0.10 65 returns | little or none within the range chance alone gives | 23 Oct 2026 |
| German 2-year government bond yield | −0.11 22 returns | −0.08 65 returns | little or none within the range chance alone gives | 23 Oct 2026 |
| WTI crude oil | −0.14 22 returns | −0.18 63 returns | little or none within the range chance alone gives | 20 Oct 2026 |
- Over 90 days bitcoin moved most closely with ether (+0.89) and least with the US 2-year Treasury yield (−0.06).
- Ether and tokenised gold windows end with the latest daily close; each official series ends on its latest published day, shown in the last column.
The last year, 30 days at a time
GoldEtherUS dollarUS 10-year yield
- Over the last year the 30-day reading ranged with gold from −0.14 to +0.77; with ether from +0.80 to +0.96; with the US dollar against the euro from −0.53 to +0.57; with the US 10-year Treasury yield from −0.46 to +0.48.
- Short windows swing widely: over 30 daily returns, readings between about −0.36 and +0.36 can appear by chance even when two markets are unrelated.
Correlation over the years
US dollarUS 10-year yield
| Year | Ether | Gold | US dollar | US 10-year yield | US 2-year yield | German 10-year yield | German 2-year yield | Oil (WTI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far | +0.91 | +0.42 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.12 |
| 2025 | +0.82 | +0.09 | −0.16 | +0.11 | +0.17 | +0.07 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| 2024 | +0.80 | +0.12 | +0.14 | +0.10 | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.02 | −0.09 |
| 2023 | +0.83 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.18 | −0.10 |
| 2022 | +0.90 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.04 | 0.00 | +0.11 |
| 2021 | +0.78 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2020 | +0.87 | +0.18 | −0.08 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.17 | +0.24 | +0.18 |
| 2019 | +0.82 | – | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.09 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 |
| 2018 | +0.82 | – | −0.05 | +0.12 | +0.09 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.05 |
| 2017 | +0.40 | – | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.05 |
| 2016 | +0.26 | – | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 |
| 2015 | – | – | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.01 |
| 2014 | – | – | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.10 |
| 2013 | – | – | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 |
| 2012 | – | – | +0.04 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 |
| 2011 | – | – | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.02 |
| 2010 | – | – | −0.12 | +0.19 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.10 | +0.02 |
Each figure uses every daily return that ended in the year (at least 60). A dash: the series does not cover enough of that year (gold from 2020, ether from 2016).
What correlation does and does not tell you
A correlation coefficient measures how consistently two series move in the same direction on the same days. It runs from +1, where every rise in one comes with a proportional rise in the other, through 0, where knowing one day's move in one tells you nothing (in a straight-line sense) about the other, to −1, where they always move in opposite directions. We describe its size as little or none below 0.2, weak from 0.2, moderate from 0.4, strong from 0.6 and very strong from 0.8.
What it does not tell you:
- How big the moves are. Bitcoin and ether can be very strongly correlated while one moves twice as far as the other; correlation ignores the size of the moves.
- What causes what. A negative correlation with the dollar does not mean the dollar drives bitcoin: both may be reacting to the same news, such as a change in expected interest rates.
- Whether it will last. Correlations change with the market. A 30-day reading rests on about thirty returns, few enough that chance alone can produce readings of ±0.36.
- Slow or delayed links. Daily returns catch same-day co-movement. A relationship that plays out over weeks or months, or with one market leading the other, can show up as a low daily correlation.
- Protection in a crash. A low correlation on ordinary days says little about the few days that matter most, when many markets can fall together.
Bitcoin and stocks
This page has no stock market correlation: we do not carry a stock index such as the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, so we cannot calculate one from our own data. The series here are the market-wide prices and rates we hold: the dollar against the euro, government bond yields and oil, plus ether and gold.
How the correlations are calculated
Daily returns: for bitcoin, ether, gold, oil and the dollar, the natural logarithm of each close divided by the one before; for yields, the change in percentage points (a yield can be zero or negative, where a logarithm is not defined). Each return runs between the same two dates for bitcoin and the other series. The 24-hour markets (bitcoin, ether, tokenised gold) have a close every calendar day. The official series have values only on the days they are published, so their returns skip weekends and holidays and bitcoin's return is taken over the same days: a Monday return covers the weekend for both. Returns across a gap of more than seven days, which only happens where a series has missing values, are left out, as is oil's return over its negative close of 20 April 2020.
Correlation: Pearson's correlation coefficient of the two return series over the returns that end within the last 30 or 90 calendar days, with at least 15 or 45 returns. That is 30 or 90 returns for ether and gold and about 21 or 63 for the official series; each row shows its count. The history lines repeat the calculation for every day. A reading counts as within the range chance alone gives when it lies inside ±tanh(1.96/√(n−3)), which 95% of readings over n returns stay inside when two series are unrelated (Fisher's approximation): about ±0.36 for 30 returns, ±0.21 for 90.
Timing: bitcoin's daily close is its price at 00:00 UTC, and ether and tokenised gold close at the same moment. The official values are set earlier in the day: the US Treasury curve from quotes around 15:30 New York time and the ECB's reference rate around 14:15 Central European Time; the EIA's oil price and the Bundesbank's yields are daily values that state no time of day. A move bitcoin makes late in the evening is therefore matched with the next day's official values, and timing differences like this pull daily correlations towards zero. The official series also arrive with a delay (oil prices about a week after the trading day), so their windows end on the date shown in each row. Gold trades as tokens at weekends while the spot market is shut; including those days changes little. Counting gold only at the closes taken while the spot gold market trades (Sunday to Thursday nights), the 90-day correlation is +0.52 (64 returns), against +0.52 with every day.
Sources:
- Ether (ETH): our own ETH/USD index (from 18 May 2016).
- Gold, tokenised (PAXG and XAUt): our tokenised gold index (from 24 Jan 2020).
- US dollar against the euro: the ECB's euro reference rate for the US dollar, inverted so that a rise means a stronger dollar (one value per TARGET business day, set around 14:15 Central European Time).
- US 10-year Treasury yield: the US Treasury's daily par yield curve, 10-year point (from quotes taken around 15:30 New York time).
- US 2-year Treasury yield: the US Treasury's daily par yield curve, 2-year point.
- German 10-year government bond yield: the Deutsche Bundesbank's daily term structure of Federal securities, 10-year rate.
- German 2-year government bond yield: the Deutsche Bundesbank's daily term structure of Federal securities, 2-year rate.
- WTI crude oil: the US Energy Information Administration's daily WTI spot price at Cushing, Oklahoma.
The official series' own charts, with their levels and full history, are on Pro: US dollar against the euro, US 10-year Treasury yield, US 2-year Treasury yield, German 10-year government bond yield, German 2-year government bond yield, WTI crude oil. This page shows only their correlation with bitcoin.
Bitcoin: BTC/USD prices are the site's admitted daily closes: retained retrospective closes from The Bitcoin Time Machine (CC BY 4.0) until 2 October 2026, then quotes recorded by CryptoKeyhole at each UTC day boundary (within 15 minutes of it, never carried forward). Each day's close is the price at its ending boundary, 00:00 UTC the next day. Daily closes start on 17 July 2010; hourly quotes start on 3 October 2026. Ether pairs start on 18 May 2016, the first day our ETH price used only dollar-quoted markets: before then part of it came from ETH/BTC markets converted with a bitcoin price, which would tie the two series together. The 10-year minus 2-year spreads are left out; their changes are the difference of the two yields' changes shown here. Recalculated every ten minutes; the correlations change once a day, after each close.
Questions
What is the correlation between bitcoin and gold?
How correlated are bitcoin and ether?
Is bitcoin correlated with stocks?
This page does not measure it: we do not carry a stock index, so we cannot calculate the correlation from our own data. It does track bitcoin against the dollar, US and German government bond yields and oil, which move with the same economic news as stocks.
Does bitcoin move with the dollar and interest rates?
What does a correlation of 0.5 mean?
A moderate, positive link: the two tend to move the same way, but often do not. If daily returns were normally distributed, a correlation of 0.5 would mean moving in the same direction on about two days in three, against one in two for unrelated series. It says nothing about the size of the moves, and over a short window a reading of 0.5 can still owe a lot to chance.
How often are these correlations updated?
The page is recalculated every ten minutes. The correlations themselves change once a day, after the 00:00 UTC close; the official series join as they are published, a day to about a week after their date.
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Figures on this page are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own daily closes, the public market data we collect and official statistics, and refreshed automatically. Nothing here is investment advice.