1.6 million bitcoin slipped underwater in four days

Bitcoin slipped back under $80,000 on Monday, and the damage shows in who now holds at a loss. On our Long- and Short-Term Holder Supply in Loss chart (Pro), 7.2 million BTC were worth less at Sunday's close than on the day they last moved, the most since 15 September. At Wednesday's close, with BTC at $84,093, it was 5.6 million. That's 1.6 million bitcoin underwater in four days.

Recent buyers took the hit

Nine in ten of those coins had moved in the last 155 days, the coins we count as short-term holders'. Their supply in loss went from 457,500 BTC on Wednesday to 1.93 million on Sunday: half of everything they hold, up from 12%.

That's what a tight range does to the latest buyers. On our Long-Term Holder Resistance and Short-Term Holder Support chart (Pro), short-term holders have 1.83 million BTC that last moved between $79,433 and $85,770, a band that starts right at today's price. A slide of a few thousand dollars flips a big slice of it from profit to loss. Thursday alone added 1.3 million BTC to the total, as the price fell from $84,093 to $81,307.

Older coins barely changed. 5.28 million BTC held for 155 days or more are underwater, 32% of them, about the same share as a week ago.

Who's selling

The coins on the move are old ones. On our Long-Term Holder Supply chart (Plus; the daily chart is free with an account), coins unmoved for 155 days or more peaked at 16.82 million BTC on 26 July and stood at 16.35 million on Sunday, 477,000 BTC lower. About 160,000 BTC of that drop came in the last 30 days, the biggest 30-day fall since the end of August on our Long-Term Holder Position Change chart (Plus).

Not every coin that moves is sold: a holder shifting coins between their own wallets counts too. But exchanges are where coins go to be sold, and deposits are rising. On our Exchange Netflow Volume chart (Plus), a net 7,340 BTC went onto the exchanges we cover on Friday, the most in a day since 2 June, and a net 10,192 BTC over the week to Sunday.

Ether has it worse

For ether, the selling shows up in the ETFs. On the issuers' own daily files, the eight US spot ether ETFs we track had net outflows on 15 of the 16 trading days in October through Thursday: about 425,000 ETH, or $1.07 billion. The only green day was 13 October, at +20 ETH. Friday's files are still arriving, and Grayscale's two funds and Morgan Stanley's aren't in these daily totals. It's all on our free US Spot ETF Net Flows chart and ether ETF flows page. ETH closed Sunday at $2,330, down from $2,689 on 27 September.

Leverage is stacked below

Our liquidation map adds a third pressure point. More than $600 million of long positions would be liquidated within 5% below the price, against less than $200 million of shorts within 5% above, on our Estimated Liquidation Levels Within 5% of Price chart (Plus). The long side has doubled since Saturday's $304 million. A slide toward $76,000 would start forcing those longs out, and forced selling feeds on itself.

What to watch

• The Fed on Wednesday 28 October. The rate decision lands two days before the month's biggest options expiry.
• Friday's expiry. At 08:00 UTC on 30 October, options on 152,510 BTC expire, $12.2 billion and about a third of all BTC options open interest, on our free options expiry page. Max pain, the price at which option buyers would lose the most, is $79,000, right around today's price. Calls outnumber puts, 94,356 BTC to 58,155.
• $79,433 to $85,770. Recent buyers' 1.83 million BTC sit in that band. A bounce into it hands many of them a way out at break-even. Below $73,564 their coins thin out, with just 152,174 BTC between $68,129 and $73,564.

How we measure it

The on-chain figures come from our own Bitcoin node. A coin is in loss when the price on the day it last moved is above the day's closing price; coins whose price we don't know are left out. Coins that haven't moved for 155 days or more count as long-term holders', the rest as short-term holders'. These are coin ages, not identified people, and a move between someone's own wallets counts as a move. Exchange flows use the reserve addresses the exchanges publish for proof of reserves, plus addresses our clustering ties to them; exchanges that publish none, such as Coinbase and Kraken, aren't covered. The ETF figures come from each issuer's own daily holdings file. The liquidation map is a model: it estimates where leveraged futures positions would be forced out, fitted to the liquidations we observe, and we publish its accuracy. Our long-term holder supply guide explains the 155-day line.