LTC: Long-Term Holder Resistance and Short-Term Holder Support

Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Pro.

Where the LTC of long-term holders (coins at least 155 days old) and of short-term holders (younger coins) was last acquired, day by day: two heatmaps of supply by cost-basis price band on one time axis, with the LTC price drawn through both. Dense long-term supply just above the price is marked as resistance, dense short-term supply just below it as support.

Why use it. Holders whose coins cost more than the price often sell when it returns to their cost, to get out even, so dense long-term supply just above the price can slow a rally; recent buyers tend to defend their cost, so dense short-term supply just below the price can slow a fall. Each cohort has its own colour scale, so the short-term map stays readable although long-term holders hold most of the coins. How to read it. Top panel: long-term holders, in blue. Bottom panel: short-term holders, in orange. Each column is a UTC day and each row a price band on a log scale: about 1.5% wide (150 per decade) when the days shown span up to about two decades of price, about 8% wide (30 per decade) for wider ranges and for Full range. Darker colour (brighter on the dark theme) means more LTC at that cost, on a logarithmic colour scale normalised separately for each panel over the days and prices shown. The line is the LTC price. The price axis opens fitted to the price range of the days shown, with a margin; Full range shows every band. The Resistance bracket and the Support arrow mark the zones the rule below picks on the last day shown. They describe where supply sits on that day; they are not a forecast of where the price will turn.

Calculation. Supply summed per day into fixed bands of cost basis: band j of the fine grid holds costs from 10^(j/150) to 10^((j+1)/150) USD per LTC, band k of the 30-per-decade grid from 10^(k/30) to 10^((k+1)/30); five fine bands make one wide band exactly. Long-term and short-term holders are split at 155 days since the output was created, by block header time, the site's long/short-term boundary. Markers, from the last day shown, with P that day's price, on the 30-per-decade bands: resistance candidates are the long-term bands entirely above the band that contains P and starting below 1.3 × P (within +30%); support candidates are the short-term bands entirely below that band and ending above 0.7 × P (within −30%). On each side the candidate holding the most supply is the peak (on a tie, the one nearest the price), and the zone is the run of adjacent candidates around it each holding at least half the peak's supply. The chart gives each zone's price range, its distance from P, its supply and that supply's share of the cohort's priced supply; a side with no supply within 30% has no zone. Long ranges show one day out of every few so that the picture fits the screen; the markers always use the full last day, and the CSV download has every day and band with each day's own zones. Each unspent output is valued at its creation-hour price: the LTC/USD price of the UTC hour its block was mined. Computed by CryptoKeyhole from its own Litecoin node's blocks, replayed output by output, with USD values from its own hourly LTC/USD index of public exchange markets. A coin's cost basis resets whenever it moves, including self-transfers, change outputs and exchange shuffles, so the distribution shows when coins last moved on the blockchain, not when their owners bought them, and outputs are not owners. Coins created before 19 May 2013, when the hourly LTC/USD price index begins, have no cost basis: they are a separate unknown-basis amount, outside the price axis. Daily from 19 May 2013, the first day the LTC/USD price index covers; the 7-, 30- and 90-day changes start that many days later. On 25 October 2026, 1.0% of supply had no cost basis. Each value describes holdings after the UTC day's last block, valued at that day's closing price. The open day is a labelled partial, updated each hour with the latest completed hour, and is replaced by the final row once the day closes.