BTC: Realized Supply Density Dynamic
Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Pro.
The share of the supply whose cost basis lies within a band around the price whose width follows bitcoin's own volatility: plus or minus the standard deviation of all daily price returns so far.
Why use it. Dense supply near the price means many holders near break-even, so a move through that zone meets selling from holders getting out even and buying from holders defending their cost. Scaling the band by volatility keeps the measure comparable as the market matures. How to read it. Higher values: the price sits in a crowded cost zone and a break out of it tends to be decisive. Lower values: little supply near the price, so it can move quickly.
Calculation. The share of the coins with a cost basis whose creation-day price is between P x (1 - w) and P x (1 + w), with P the day's closing price and w the standard deviation of every daily return (close over previous close - 1) from 18 July 2010 through that day. The band was widest in the first years of trading, when daily moves were largest, and narrows slowly as calmer years accumulate. Coins created before 18 July 2010 have no cost basis and are outside the share. Cost basis resets whenever an output moves, so the share counts coins by when they last moved on the blockchain, not by what their owners paid. Computed by CryptoKeyhole from its own Bitcoin node's record of every unspent and spent output by creation day, with its own admitted daily BTC/USD prices. Daily from 18 July 2010. Each value describes the UTC day after its last block, valued at the day's closing price; the open day is a labelled partial, valued at the latest completed hour and updated through the day, and becomes final six blocks after the day's last block.