Every bitcoin bear market bottomed below its realized price. This cycle's low held 1.5% above it

Every bitcoin bear market in our records ended below the realized price, the average price every coin last moved at. The last three bottoms share something else too: each came between 13 and 71 days after a US midterm election. The next midterm is tomorrow, 3 November. This cycle's low so far was $58,532 on 30 June, and it stopped 1.5% above the line. Today the line sits at $58,663, almost exactly where June's low was, with the price at $78,161, 33% above it at 09:00 UTC.

The last three midterms

The low came first each time and the recovery after it. A year on from each vote bitcoin was higher, by 22% to 92%, but anyone who bought on election day first sat through another fall of 15% to 50%.

The one bear market that isn't in the table ended the same way. In 2011 bitcoin bottomed at $2.05 on 18 November, 68% below a realized price of $6.50. Even the crash of March 2020, which wasn't a bear market bottom, closed at $4,917, 22% under the line.

Why the line matters

The realized price is the market's average cost. When bitcoin trades below it, the average coin is held at a loss, and that is where selling has run out before: the holders left are the ones who won't sell at a loss, and the line has turned into support on the way back up. The MVRV ratio, price divided by realized price, puts it as a number. It read 0.46, 0.63 and 0.71 at the three post-midterm lows.

This cycle so far

Bitcoin's record close was $124,767 on 6 October 2025. The fall that followed bottomed twice: $62,858 on 5 February, 4.4% above the realized price, and $58,532 on 30 June, 1.5% above it. The price never closed below the line. Since June it has climbed back to $78,161, and MVRV reads 1.33.

That's a higher starting point than any of the last three midterms. Going into them MVRV read 0.85 in 2014, 1.19 in 2018 and 0.81 in 2022, so bitcoin was already near or under the line on election day.

Our read

We'd call the midterm link a coincidence of the calendar. US midterms fall two to two and a half years after each halving, which is where bitcoin's four-year rhythm has put its bear market lows, and three dates don't make a law. The realized price is the part with substance: it's where every bear market so far has ended.

So there are two ways to read June. Either this is the first cycle where buyers held the line, or the real low is still ahead and $58,663 gets tested again. A daily close below it would put bitcoin where every past bottom has been.

What to watch this week

• The midterms, Tuesday 3 November.
• Binance's full proof of reserves, which Binance says is due by Tuesday. Our node shows its withdrawal queue easing. Payouts from its listed bitcoin wallets fell from about 2,600 an hour in the first eight hours after Sunday's reopening to about 620 an hour between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC today, against 360 in a normal week. Since the reopening 24,500 BTC, 3.8%, has left those wallets, and apart from 500 BTC Binance moved in itself, no deposits have reached them yet. Our free proof of reserves page follows it every hour.
• The October jobs report, Friday 6 November.
• The line itself. The realized price was $58,663 at 09:00 UTC and has risen by about $430 over the past 30 days.

How we measure it

Our realized price values every bitcoin at the price when it last moved, read block by block from our own Bitcoin node, and divides the total by the coins we can price. It updates every hour. Prices are our own daily quotes, and a cycle low here is the lowest daily close after that cycle's record. The Realized Price chart is free with an account at daily resolution, and so is the MVRV chart. Our guide to the realized price explains the rest.