Does the Altcoin Season Index work?
Altcoin season (75 or above). Mixed: 2 of 10 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle top, catching 2 of the 2 tops in its record; a year later the price had changed by a median +6.6%, against +57.0% for a typical day of the same cycles.
Bitcoin season (25 or below). Mixed: 4 of 15 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom, catching 3 of the 3 bottoms in its record; a year later the price had changed by a median +48.7%, against +48.1% for a typical day of the same cycles.
- Altcoin season (75 or above): 10 signals; 2 of 10 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle top (8 false alarms); it caught 2 of the 2 cycle tops in its record.
- Bitcoin season (25 or below): 15 signals; 4 of 15 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom (11 false alarms); it caught 3 of the 3 cycle bottoms in its record.
What followed the signals
Altcoin season (75 or above)
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 10 10 independent | +1.5% | +0.6% | 60% | +0.3% | 52% | +0.3% |
| 30 days | 10 10 independent | −2.8% | −3.7% | 30% | +1.5% | 54% | +1.7% |
| 90 days | 10 9 independent | −4.2% | −1.5% | 20% | +3.6% | 54% | +6.4% |
| 365 days | 10 5 independent | +6.6% | +57.8% | 60% | +42.6% | 65% | +57.0% |
Bitcoin season (25 or below)
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 15 15 independent | +3.4% | +3.5% | 60% | +0.3% | 52% | +0.1% |
| 30 days | 15 15 independent | +17.4% | +12.9% | 67% | +1.5% | 54% | +1.4% |
| 90 days | 14 13 independent | +14.7% | +25.8% | 64% | +3.6% | 54% | +0.5% |
| 365 days | 14 7 independent | +48.7% | +114% | 64% | +42.6% | 65% | +48.1% |
Every signal
Altcoin season (75 or above)
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle top | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jun 2018 25 days in signal | 82 | $7,720 | −12.3% | −15.7% | −6.7% | +5.1% | 169 days after the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −60.1% from it | False alarm |
| 5 Nov 2019 26 days in signal | 82 | $9,324 | −5.5% | −20.6% | −0.4% | +51.8% | 689 days after the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −51.8% from it | False alarm |
| 13 Feb 2020 24 days in signal | 75 | $10,233 | −6.1% | −49.4% | −8.9% | +364% | 634 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −84.9% from it | False alarm |
| 3 Aug 2020 37 days in signal | 85 | $11,235 | +5.9% | +1.5% | +22.5% | +240% | 462 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −83.4% from it | False alarm |
| 6 Feb 2021 8 days in signal | 77 | $39,267 | +20.3% | +33.5% | +46.1% | +8.0% | 275 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −41.9% from it | False alarm |
| 22 Mar 2021 79 days in signal | 78 | $54,095 | +6.5% | −0.5% | −34.2% | −21.7% | 231 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −19.9% from it | False alarm |
| 19 Sep 2021 2 days in signal | 77 | $47,252 | −8.6% | +36.0% | −0.8% | −58.6% | 50 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −30.0% from it | Hit |
| 9 Aug 2022 43 days in signal | 91 | $23,157 | +3.0% | −16.6% | −11.1% | +27.7% | 274 days after the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −65.7% from it | False alarm |
| 2 Dec 2024 9 days in signal | 83 | $95,853 | +1.6% | −1.5% | −1.6% | −4.7% | 308 days before the 2025 top (6 Oct 2025); price −23.2% from it | False alarm |
| 11 Sep 2025 14 days in signal | 76 | $115,500 | +1.4% | −4.1% | −20.3% | −33.2% | 25 days before the 2025 top (6 Oct 2025); price −7.4% from it | Hit |
| Cycle top | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2021 | $67,549 | Yes: the signal from 19 Sep 2021, which began 50 days before it |
| 6 Oct 2025 | $124,766 | Yes: the signal from 11 Sep 2025, which began 25 days before it |
Bitcoin season (25 or below)
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle bottom | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2018 17 days in signal | 10 | $7,075 | −4.0% | +30.5% | −10.4% | −30.6% | 257 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +119% from it | False alarm |
| 18 Jul 2018 66 days in signal | 18 | $7,383 | +10.7% | −10.7% | −10.8% | +44.1% | 150 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +128% from it | Hit |
| 14 Jun 2019 116 days in signal | 18 | $8,694 | +17.5% | +17.4% | +20.0% | +9.0% | 181 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +169% from it | False alarm |
| 3 Jan 2020 20 days in signal | 25 | $7,340 | +11.6% | +27.2% | −7.3% | +339% | 384 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +127% from it | False alarm |
| 7 May 2020 23 days in signal | 17 | $10,000 | −2.1% | −3.3% | +17.5% | +474% | 509 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +209% from it | False alarm |
| 28 Oct 2020 80 days in signal | 21 | $13,286 | +6.6% | +29.1% | +145% | +356% | 683 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +311% from it | False alarm |
| 26 Jul 2021 20 days in signal | 25 | $37,270 | +5.1% | +31.5% | +63.3% | −43.0% | 483 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +136% from it | False alarm |
| 24 Jan 2022 154 days in signal | 19 | $36,703 | +4.9% | +1.5% | +7.5% | −38.3% | 301 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +133% from it | False alarm |
| 25 Dec 2022 17 days in signal | 25 | $16,829 | −1.3% | +34.5% | +63.4% | +159% | 34 days after the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +6.8% from it | Hit |
| 5 Mar 2023 151 days in signal | 24 | $22,434 | −1.1% | +25.6% | +20.7% | +205% | 104 days after the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +42.3% from it | False alarm |
| 11 Oct 2023 28 days in signal | 15 | $26,871 | +5.4% | +38.9% | +71.6% | +124% | 324 days after the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +70.5% from it | False alarm |
| 3 Jun 2024 136 days in signal | 25 | $68,800 | +1.0% | −12.6% | −16.7% | +53.3% | 560 days after the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +337% from it | False alarm |
| 23 Feb 2025 108 days in signal | 24 | $96,303 | −2.1% | −9.2% | +12.0% | −32.9% | 492 days before the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +64.5% from it | False alarm |
| 15 Oct 2025 201 days in signal | 24 | $110,782 | −2.8% | −14.7% | −13.9% | −25.8% | 258 days before the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +89.3% from it | Hit |
| 30 Aug 2026 | 25 | $77,682 | +3.4% | +7.7% | – | – | 61 days after the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +32.7% from it | Hit |
| Cycle bottom | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Dec 2018 | $3,233 | Yes: the signal from 18 Jul 2018, which began 150 days before it |
| 21 Nov 2022 | $15,760 | Yes: the signal from 25 Dec 2022, which began 34 days after it |
| 30 Jun 2026 | $58,532 | Yes: the signal from 30 Aug 2026, which began 61 days after it |
Method and sources
Signals. Top signal: altcoin season (75 or above); Bottom signal: Bitcoin season (25 or below). The levels are the ones commonly quoted for this indicator, fixed before any result was looked at. A signal starts on the first day the condition holds after it has been off for at least 30 days, so a run of days counts once (the same rule as the signal lab).
Point in time. Each day compares 90-day returns ending that day. One limit cannot be removed with our data: the basket is the coins we cover today, so earlier readings leave out coins that have since been delisted or died, and the early years have few coins. The outcome measured here is the Bitcoin price. Daily readings are closed UTC days from 28 February 2018 to 26 October 2026; the open day is never used.
Outcomes. The change of the BTC daily close from the close of the signal's first day to the close 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later, against the same change from every day the indicator has a reading (the base rate). Signals whose windows overlap share the same price moves, so the tables also count independent signals: windows that do not overlap, counted from the first. Recent signals wait for their outcomes.
Cycle tops and bottoms. A cycle top is an all-time-high close followed by a fall of at least 75% before any higher close; the latest all-time high starts the current cycle. A cycle bottom is the lowest close between two tops; the current cycle's bottom is its lowest close so far, so it can still move. A signal is a hit when a turn of its kind came while it was on or within 90 days either side (from 90 days before its first day to 90 days after its last), and a false alarm otherwise; a signal still on, or ended less than 90 days ago, waits. The verdict compares each signal with the median change of every day in the same four-year halving cycle, so the outsized early years neither flatter nor penalise later signals.
Plans. The chart is Free, so every signal and today's reading are shown to everyone.
Sources. Our own Bitcoin node and BTC/USD price record, through the published chart linked below. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast and nothing here is investment advice.
Questions
Does the Altcoin Season Index work?
How accurate is the Altcoin Season Index?
Has the Altcoin Season Index given false signals?
Is the Altcoin Season Index signalling now?
How is this backtest calculated?
Each signal is the first day the Altcoin Season Index meets its level after at least 30 days without it, using only data that existed that day. We measure the BTC price change 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later against the same change from every day and from the days of the same four-year cycle, and the distance to the nearest cycle top or bottom.
Open the Altcoin Season Index chartAll free tools
Signals and outcomes are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and price data, using only data that existed on each day. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.