Does the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index work?
Extreme greed (76 or above). Selling on it would have missed gains: a year later the price had changed by a median +124%, against +79.4% for a typical day of the same cycles; 3 of 22 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle top, catching 2 of the 4 tops in its record.
Extreme fear (24 or below). No reliable edge: a year later the price had changed by a median +79.8%, against +79.4% for a typical day of the same cycles; 4 of 24 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom, catching 3 of the 4 bottoms in its record.
- Extreme greed (76 or above): 22 signals; 3 of 22 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle top (19 false alarms); it caught 2 of the 4 cycle tops in its record.
- Extreme fear (24 or below): 24 signals; 4 of 24 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom (20 false alarms); it caught 3 of the 4 cycle bottoms in its record.
What followed the signals
Extreme greed (76 or above)
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 22 22 independent | +2.7% | +5.8% | 68% | +0.8% | 56% | +1.0% |
| 30 days | 22 22 independent | +20.5% | +31.1% | 82% | +3.5% | 58% | +4.4% |
| 90 days | 22 17 independent | +31.3% | +75.2% | 77% | +11.5% | 61% | +12.3% |
| 365 days | 22 9 independent | +124% | +482% | 91% | +89.4% | 72% | +79.4% |
Extreme fear (24 or below)
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 24 24 independent | +5.8% | +8.8% | 58% | +0.8% | 56% | +1.0% |
| 30 days | 24 24 independent | +5.5% | +19.4% | 58% | +3.5% | 58% | +4.4% |
| 90 days | 24 19 independent | +22.1% | +44.5% | 71% | +11.5% | 61% | +12.3% |
| 365 days | 21 9 independent | +79.8% | +330% | 62% | +89.4% | 72% | +79.4% |
Every signal
Extreme greed (76 or above)
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle top | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2012 8 days in signal | 77 | $9.11 | −3.4% | +27.1% | +30.1% | +889% | 406 days after the 2011 top (8 Jun 2011); price −69.2% from it | False alarm |
| 18 Jan 2013 79 days in signal | 76 | $15.70 | +10.8% | +70.8% | +595% | +5669% | 320 days before the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −98.7% from it | False alarm |
| 23 Oct 2013 4 days in signal | 77 | $227.97 | −8.8% | +252% | +322% | +56.1% | 42 days before the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −81.6% from it | Hit |
| 16 Jun 2015 18 days in signal | 76 | $249.82 | −2.4% | +10.7% | −8.0% | +177% | 559 days after the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −79.8% from it | False alarm |
| 13 Oct 2015 22 days in signal | 76 | $248.78 | +8.4% | +34.2% | +80.0% | +156% | 678 days after the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −79.9% from it | False alarm |
| 12 Dec 2015 10 days in signal | 77 | $432.29 | +6.7% | +3.6% | −3.0% | +77.6% | 735 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −97.8% from it | False alarm |
| 20 Feb 2016 55 days in signal | 81 | $440.06 | −2.0% | −6.6% | +0.5% | +138% | 665 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −97.7% from it | False alarm |
| 26 Oct 2016 27 days in signal | 77 | $674.67 | +8.7% | +9.7% | +32.5% | +773% | 416 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −96.5% from it | False alarm |
| 2 Mar 2017 5 days in signal | 77 | $1,255 | −5.1% | −13.5% | +83.5% | +780% | 289 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −93.5% from it | False alarm |
| 3 May 2017 28 days in signal | 76 | $1,486 | +18.0% | +67.8% | +84.9% | +556% | 227 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −92.3% from it | False alarm |
| 2 Nov 2017 5 days in signal | 81 | $7,025 | +1.5% | +55.3% | +45.6% | −9.0% | 44 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −63.7% from it | Hit |
| 12 Dec 2017 2 days in signal | 76 | $17,084 | +2.6% | −22.1% | −46.5% | −79.6% | 4 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −11.7% from it | Hit |
| 8 May 2019 6 days in signal | 76 | $5,999 | +36.4% | +33.4% | +91.2% | +66.7% | 508 days after the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −69.0% from it | False alarm |
| 18 Jun 2019 9 days in signal | 78 | $9,082 | +29.3% | +17.1% | +13.1% | +4.2% | 549 days after the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −53.1% from it | False alarm |
| 17 Jan 2020 3 days in signal | 78 | $8,895 | −5.2% | +11.6% | −20.0% | +305% | 661 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −86.8% from it | False alarm |
| 31 Jul 2020 2 days in signal | 77 | $11,353 | +2.2% | +3.2% | +18.6% | +265% | 465 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −83.2% from it | False alarm |
| 27 Oct 2020 6 days in signal | 77 | $13,646 | +2.8% | +25.9% | +137% | +328% | 377 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −79.8% from it | False alarm |
| 27 Dec 2020 14 days in signal | 76 | $26,249 | +26.0% | +23.9% | +113% | +93.2% | 316 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −61.1% from it | False alarm |
| 16 Apr 2023 | 76 | $30,322 | −9.0% | −10.8% | −0.1% | +109% | 524 days after the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −55.1% from it | False alarm |
| 29 Oct 2023 13 days in signal | 77 | $34,535 | +1.5% | +9.6% | +22.0% | +102% | 708 days before the 2025 top (6 Oct 2025); price −72.3% from it | False alarm |
| 12 Feb 2024 24 days in signal | 77 | $49,943 | +3.7% | +46.4% | +23.1% | +91.8% | 602 days before the 2025 top (6 Oct 2025); price −60.0% from it | False alarm |
| 30 Oct 2024 6 days in signal | 76 | $72,331 | +4.6% | +34.8% | +40.1% | +49.7% | 341 days before the 2025 top (6 Oct 2025); price −42.0% from it | False alarm |
| Cycle top | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2013 | $1,238 | Yes: the signal from 23 Oct 2013, which began 42 days before it |
| 16 Dec 2017 | $19,345 | Yes: the signal from 12 Dec 2017, which began 4 days before it |
| 8 Nov 2021 | $67,549 | No signal on within 90 days |
| 6 Oct 2025 | $124,766 | No signal on within 90 days |
Extreme fear (24 or below)
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle bottom | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2012 | 24 | $8.00 | +32.6% | +53.1% | +47.4% | +1381% | 275 days after the 2011 bottom (18 Nov 2011); price +290% from it | False alarm |
| 16 Apr 2013 | 17 | $68.36 | +110% | +72.9% | +44.7% | +685% | 515 days after the 2011 bottom (18 Nov 2011); price +3235% from it | False alarm |
| 3 Jul 2013 11 days in signal | 22 | $78.89 | +11.5% | +32.5% | +77.8% | +709% | 560 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price −52.2% from it | False alarm |
| 18 Dec 2013 4 days in signal | 5 | $540.98 | +30.7% | +65.3% | +10.7% | −42.6% | 392 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +228% from it | False alarm |
| 7 Feb 2014 71 days in signal | 13 | $695.65 | −38.5% | −9.9% | −36.6% | −67.3% | 341 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +322% from it | False alarm |
| 28 Sep 2014 18 days in signal | 23 | $379.08 | −14.8% | −7.4% | −16.8% | −37.0% | 108 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +130% from it | Hit |
| 11 Jan 2015 31 days in signal | 23 | $264.77 | −20.5% | −17.0% | −10.7% | +69.1% | 3 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +60.5% from it | Hit |
| 2 Aug 2016 | 22 | $513.43 | +14.0% | +11.4% | +36.1% | +430% | 566 days after the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +211% from it | False alarm |
| 11 Jan 2017 | 22 | $785.43 | +11.0% | +27.0% | +55.4% | +1594% | 703 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price −75.7% from it | False alarm |
| 18 Mar 2017 11 days in signal | 12 | $971.38 | −0.5% | +22.9% | +158% | +746% | 637 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price −69.9% from it | False alarm |
| 15 Jul 2017 3 days in signal | 16 | $1,975 | +43.6% | +119% | +185% | +222% | 518 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price −38.9% from it | False alarm |
| 14 Sep 2017 7 days in signal | 15 | $3,243 | +11.5% | +79.6% | +402% | +100.0% | 457 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +0.3% from it | False alarm |
| 16 Jan 2018 111 days in signal | 2 | $11,282 | −3.8% | −11.1% | −28.4% | −67.7% | 333 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +249% from it | False alarm |
| 14 Aug 2018 | 24 | $6,200 | +4.7% | +4.7% | +2.8% | +61.8% | 123 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +91.8% from it | False alarm |
| 24 Nov 2018 26 days in signal | 23 | $3,854 | +8.9% | +5.9% | +3.4% | +79.8% | 21 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +19.2% from it | Hit |
| 12 Mar 2020 17 days in signal | 11 | $4,917 | +25.8% | +40.1% | +101% | +1065% | 453 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +52.1% from it | False alarm |
| 19 May 2021 64 days in signal | 20 | $36,772 | +6.9% | −2.6% | +21.5% | −17.6% | 551 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +133% from it | False alarm |
| 6 Dec 2021 8 days in signal | 24 | $50,553 | −7.6% | −14.1% | −24.0% | −66.2% | 350 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +221% from it | False alarm |
| 10 May 2022 26 days in signal | 24 | $31,013 | −1.9% | −3.0% | −23.2% | −10.9% | 195 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +96.8% from it | False alarm |
| 5 Aug 2024 5 days in signal | 23 | $54,006 | +9.9% | +7.3% | +27.3% | +111% | 623 days after the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +243% from it | False alarm |
| 3 Mar 2025 29 days in signal | 19 | $86,145 | −8.8% | −4.2% | +22.7% | −20.7% | 484 days before the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +47.2% from it | False alarm |
| 4 Dec 2025 8 days in signal | 23 | $92,143 | +0.4% | −1.7% | −21.1% | – | 208 days before the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +57.4% from it | False alarm |
| 1 Feb 2026 34 days in signal | 23 | $76,882 | −8.6% | −11.1% | +2.3% | – | 149 days before the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +31.4% from it | False alarm |
| 21 Jun 2026 | 24 | $63,234 | −5.9% | +5.2% | +28.5% | – | 9 days before the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +8.0% from it | Hit |
| Cycle bottom | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2015 | $164.92 | Yes: the signal from 11 Jan 2015, which began 3 days before it |
| 15 Dec 2018 | $3,233 | Yes: the signal from 24 Nov 2018, which began 21 days before it |
| 21 Nov 2022 | $15,760 | No signal on within 90 days |
| 30 Jun 2026 | $58,532 | Yes: the signal from 21 Jun 2026, which began 9 days before it |
Method and sources
Signals. Top signal: extreme greed (76 or above); Bottom signal: extreme fear (24 or below). The levels are the ones commonly quoted for this indicator, fixed before any result was looked at. A signal starts on the first day the condition holds after it has been off for at least 30 days, so a run of days counts once (the same rule as the signal lab).
Point in time. Each component is ranked against its own trailing 730 days and every window ends on the day, so the index uses only data that existed at the end of each day. The zones are the index's own: 24 or below is extreme fear and 76 or above extreme greed, on the rounded reading. Daily readings are closed UTC days from 4 October 2011 to 26 October 2026; the open day is never used.
Outcomes. The change of the BTC daily close from the close of the signal's first day to the close 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later, against the same change from every day the indicator has a reading (the base rate). Signals whose windows overlap share the same price moves, so the tables also count independent signals: windows that do not overlap, counted from the first. Recent signals wait for their outcomes.
Cycle tops and bottoms. A cycle top is an all-time-high close followed by a fall of at least 75% before any higher close; the latest all-time high starts the current cycle. A cycle bottom is the lowest close between two tops; the current cycle's bottom is its lowest close so far, so it can still move. A signal is a hit when a turn of its kind came while it was on or within 90 days either side (from 90 days before its first day to 90 days after its last), and a false alarm otherwise; a signal still on, or ended less than 90 days ago, waits. The verdict compares each signal with the median change of every day in the same four-year halving cycle, so the outsized early years neither flatter nor penalise later signals.
Plans. The chart is Free, so every signal and today's reading are shown to everyone.
Sources. Our own Bitcoin node and BTC/USD price record, through the published chart linked below. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast and nothing here is investment advice.
Questions
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How is this backtest calculated?
Each signal is the first day the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index meets its level after at least 30 days without it, using only data that existed that day. We measure the BTC price change 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later against the same change from every day and from the days of the same four-year cycle, and the distance to the nearest cycle top or bottom.
Open the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index chartAll free tools
Signals and outcomes are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and price data, using only data that existed on each day. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.