POL: Leverage Gauge
Shown as its 7–13 Oct 2024 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Plus.
A 0-100 reading of how stretched POL (ex-MATIC) leverage is, hourly: open interest against market cap, funding, the futures basis, trader positioning and the nearest liquidation cluster, each judged against POL (ex-MATIC)'s own past year.
Why use it. Stretched leverage is the fuel for squeezes and liquidation cascades: when positions are large, crowded and close to their liquidation levels, a small move can force a large one. The gauge does not say which way. How to read it. Low 0-39, elevated 40-59, high 60-74, extreme 75-100. 80 means today's mix is more stretched than most of the past year. In our public record, high and extreme hours were followed by larger moves than usual in either direction (see the leverage gauge backtest). The components chart shows which part drives it.
Calculation. A 0-100 reading of how stretched POL (ex-MATIC) leverage is, from 4 components: open interest against market cap: Bybit's perpetual open interest as a percent of market cap (our price times the circulating supply from our own node or token records); higher is more stretched; funding: Binance's and Bybit's settled funding, each settlement as an eight-hour rate, averaged over the last 24 hours and then over the two venues; far from its usual level in either direction is more stretched; the long/short account ratio: Bybit's, the venue whose public record reaches back years; far from usual either way is more stretched; the nearest large liquidation cluster: how far the nearer of the two densest 0.5% bands of our calibrated liquidation map (the densest below and the densest above the price, within 15%) sits from the price, to the band's centre; nearer is more stretched. Each component's hourly reading is ranked among the coin's own readings of the trailing 365 days, the hour included, once it has at least 30 days of them: rank = 100 x (readings below + (equal readings - 1) / 2) / (readings - 1). One-sided components score their rank (open interest) or 100 minus it (the liquidation cluster); two-sided ones score |2 x rank - 100| (funding, basis, accounts, Hyperliquid), since a crowd leaning hard either way is stretched. The gauge is the mean of the scores present, published when at least three components score and one of them is open interest or the liquidation cluster. Bands on the rounded gauge: low 0-39, elevated 40-59, high 60-74, extreme 75-100. No look-ahead: every window ends at the hour it scores; an hourly input missing for an hour keeps its previous reading for at most two hours; supply is the previous day's. The liquidation map is our own model replayed over history with one fitted leverage mix. History is recalculated from the inputs as stored now. The daily value is the day's last hour; the open hour and day are provisional. Not in POL's reading (never collected, or fewer than 30 days of readings so far; the coin's leverage page says which): futures basis, hyperliquid large accounts.