Does the Mayer Multiple work?
The Mayer Multiple at 2.4 or above. Mixed: 3 of 7 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle top, catching 3 of the 5 tops in its record; a year later the price had changed by a median +40.5%, against +79.4% for a typical day of the same cycles.
The Mayer Multiple below 0.8. Buying on it did worse than buying on a typical day: a year later the price had changed by a median −17.5%, against +79.4% for a typical day of the same cycles; 6 of 15 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom, catching 5 of the 5 bottoms in its record.
- The Mayer Multiple at 2.4 or above: 7 signals; 3 of 7 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle top (4 false alarms); it caught 3 of the 5 cycle tops in its record.
- The Mayer Multiple below 0.8: 15 signals; 6 of 15 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom (9 false alarms); it caught 5 of the 5 cycle bottoms in its record.
What followed the signals
The Mayer Multiple at 2.4 or above
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 7 7 independent | +19.4% | +20.8% | 71% | +0.8% | 55% | +1.0% |
| 30 days | 7 7 independent | +58.4% | +129% | 71% | +3.1% | 57% | +4.2% |
| 90 days | 7 7 independent | +72.6% | +220% | 71% | +11.1% | 60% | +19.5% |
| 365 days | 7 5 independent | +40.5% | +312% | 71% | +87.9% | 71% | +79.4% |
The Mayer Multiple below 0.8
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 15 15 independent | −1.0% | −1.0% | 47% | +0.8% | 55% | +1.0% |
| 30 days | 15 15 independent | −0.2% | +2.9% | 47% | +3.1% | 57% | +4.2% |
| 90 days | 15 12 independent | −0.5% | +6.5% | 47% | +11.1% | 60% | +12.3% |
| 365 days | 12 5 independent | −17.5% | +96.6% | 33% | +87.9% | 71% | +79.4% |
Every signal
The Mayer Multiple at 2.4 or above
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle top | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2011 92 days in signal | 2.42 | $1.20 | +49.8% | +469% | +1025% | +327% | 50 days before the 2011 top (8 Jun 2011); price −96.0% from it | Hit |
| 4 Mar 2013 83 days in signal | 2.43 | $36.15 | +33.9% | +273% | +239% | +1731% | 275 days before the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −97.1% from it | False alarm |
| 7 Nov 2013 73 days in signal | 2.42 | $309.65 | +40.0% | +125% | +192% | +10.4% | 27 days before the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −75.0% from it | Hit |
| 6 Jun 2017 | 2.42 | $2,870 | −5.5% | −8.9% | +48.7% | +167% | 193 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −85.2% from it | False alarm |
| 27 Nov 2017 32 days in signal | 2.40 | $9,733 | +19.4% | +58.4% | −1.3% | −60.7% | 19 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −49.7% from it | Hit |
| 26 Jun 2019 | 2.48 | $12,913 | −7.2% | −23.7% | −33.8% | −28.4% | 557 days after the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −33.2% from it | False alarm |
| 3 Jan 2021 24 days in signal | 2.41 | $33,063 | +15.5% | +7.4% | +72.6% | +40.5% | 309 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −51.1% from it | False alarm |
| Cycle top | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Jun 2011 | $29.60 | Yes: the signal from 19 Apr 2011, which began 50 days before it |
| 4 Dec 2013 | $1,238 | Yes: the signal from 7 Nov 2013, which began 27 days before it |
| 16 Dec 2017 | $19,345 | Yes: the signal from 27 Nov 2017, which began 19 days before it |
| 8 Nov 2021 | $67,549 | No signal on within 90 days |
| 6 Oct 2025 | $124,766 | No signal on within 90 days |
The Mayer Multiple below 0.8
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle bottom | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2011 118 days in signal | 0.62 | $5.03 | −4.2% | −18.4% | −40.7% | +119% | 70 days before the 2011 bottom (18 Nov 2011); price +145% from it | Hit |
| 15 Feb 2014 11 days in signal | 0.77 | $371.07 | −31.1% | +63.4% | +22.2% | −37.1% | 333 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +125% from it | False alarm |
| 30 Mar 2014 38 days in signal | 0.80 | $446.92 | +2.0% | −0.2% | +33.7% | −44.8% | 290 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +171% from it | False alarm |
| 18 Sep 2014 201 days in signal | 0.78 | $424.26 | −2.8% | −7.9% | −24.6% | −45.3% | 118 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +157% from it | Hit |
| 29 Mar 2018 14 days in signal | 0.76 | $7,107 | −4.4% | +31.6% | −13.6% | −42.1% | 261 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +120% from it | False alarm |
| 17 May 2018 67 days in signal | 0.79 | $8,071 | −6.0% | −19.4% | −22.3% | −8.7% | 212 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +150% from it | False alarm |
| 19 Nov 2018 115 days in signal | 0.70 | $4,810 | −21.3% | −22.3% | −23.7% | +69.1% | 26 days before the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +48.8% from it | Hit |
| 22 Nov 2019 40 days in signal | 0.78 | $7,292 | +6.5% | +3.1% | +31.8% | +156% | 342 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +126% from it | False alarm |
| 12 Mar 2020 17 days in signal | 0.57 | $4,917 | +25.8% | +40.1% | +101% | +1065% | 453 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +52.1% from it | False alarm |
| 8 Jun 2021 33 days in signal | 0.80 | $33,409 | +20.2% | −1.6% | +57.7% | −9.6% | 531 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +112% from it | False alarm |
| 21 Jan 2022 29 days in signal | 0.75 | $36,469 | +3.5% | +5.3% | +11.0% | −37.5% | 304 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +131% from it | False alarm |
| 26 Apr 2022 204 days in signal | 0.80 | $38,117 | −1.0% | −23.4% | −44.1% | −25.4% | 209 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +142% from it | Hit |
| 20 Nov 2025 9 days in signal | 0.78 | $86,503 | +5.5% | +2.1% | −23.2% | – | 222 days before the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +47.8% from it | False alarm |
| 31 Jan 2026 66 days in signal | 0.76 | $78,648 | −11.9% | −12.5% | −0.5% | – | 150 days before the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +34.4% from it | Hit |
| 5 Jun 2026 12 days in signal | 0.77 | $61,038 | +4.1% | +4.2% | +33.2% | – | 25 days before the current cycle's bottom so far (30 Jun 2026); price +4.3% from it | Hit |
| Cycle bottom | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Nov 2011 | $2.05 | Yes: the signal from 9 Sep 2011, which began 70 days before it |
| 14 Jan 2015 | $164.92 | Yes: the signal from 18 Sep 2014, which began 118 days before it |
| 15 Dec 2018 | $3,233 | Yes: the signal from 19 Nov 2018, which began 26 days before it |
| 21 Nov 2022 | $15,760 | Yes: the signal from 26 Apr 2022, which began 209 days before it |
| 30 Jun 2026 | $58,532 | Yes: the signal from 5 Jun 2026, which began 25 days before it |
Method and sources
Signals. Top signal: the Mayer Multiple at 2.4 or above; Bottom signal: the Mayer Multiple below 0.8. The levels are the ones commonly quoted for this indicator, fixed before any result was looked at. A signal starts on the first day the condition holds after it has been off for at least 30 days, so a run of days counts once (the same rule as the signal lab).
Point in time. The 200-day average is trailing, so each reading uses only closes up to that day. Daily readings are closed UTC days from 1 February 2011 to 26 October 2026; the open day is never used.
Outcomes. The change of the BTC daily close from the close of the signal's first day to the close 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later, against the same change from every day the indicator has a reading (the base rate). Signals whose windows overlap share the same price moves, so the tables also count independent signals: windows that do not overlap, counted from the first. Recent signals wait for their outcomes.
Cycle tops and bottoms. A cycle top is an all-time-high close followed by a fall of at least 75% before any higher close; the latest all-time high starts the current cycle. A cycle bottom is the lowest close between two tops; the current cycle's bottom is its lowest close so far, so it can still move. A signal is a hit when a turn of its kind came while it was on or within 90 days either side (from 90 days before its first day to 90 days after its last), and a false alarm otherwise; a signal still on, or ended less than 90 days ago, waits. The verdict compares each signal with the median change of every day in the same four-year halving cycle, so the outsized early years neither flatter nor penalise later signals.
Plans. The chart is Free, so every signal and today's reading are shown to everyone.
Sources. Our own Bitcoin node and BTC/USD price record, through the published chart linked below. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast and nothing here is investment advice.
Questions
Does the Mayer Multiple work?
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Has the Mayer Multiple given false signals?
Is the Mayer Multiple signalling now?
How is this backtest calculated?
Each signal is the first day the Mayer Multiple meets its level after at least 30 days without it, using only data that existed that day. We measure the BTC price change 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later against the same change from every day and from the days of the same four-year cycle, and the distance to the nearest cycle top or bottom.
Open the Mayer Multiple chartAll free tools
Signals and outcomes are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and price data, using only data that existed on each day. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.