Does the Pi Cycle Bottom work?
The 150-day exponential average below 0.745 × the 471-day average. Mixed: 3 of 3 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom, catching 3 of the 4 bottoms in its record; a year later the price had changed by a median +65.2%, against +79.4% for a typical day of the same cycles. With 3 independent signals, chance cannot be ruled out.
- The 150-day exponential average below 0.745 × the 471-day average: 3 signals; 3 of 3 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom (0 false alarms); it caught 3 of the 4 cycle bottoms in its record.
What followed the signals
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 3 3 independent | +14.8% | +3.3% | 67% | +0.8% | 56% | +1.0% |
| 30 days | 3 3 independent | +2.7% | +1.5% | 67% | +3.5% | 58% | +4.2% |
| 90 days | 3 3 independent | −5.8% | −1.8% | 33% | +11.0% | 61% | +12.3% |
| 365 days | 3 3 independent | +65.2% | +69.3% | 100% | +87.8% | 71% | +79.4% |
Every signal
The 150-day exponential average below 0.745 × the 471-day average
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle bottom | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jan 2015 260 days in signal | 1.000 | $269.33 | −19.8% | −18.8% | −12.4% | +65.2% | 2 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +63.3% from it | Hit |
| 17 Dec 2018 143 days in signal | 0.999 | $3,548 | +15.0% | +2.7% | +12.7% | +87.0% | 2 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +9.8% from it | Hit |
| 13 Jul 2022 246 days in signal | 0.997 | $20,231 | +14.8% | +20.7% | −5.8% | +55.6% | 131 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +28.4% from it | Hit |
| Cycle bottom | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2015 | $164.92 | Yes: the signal from 12 Jan 2015, which began 2 days before it |
| 15 Dec 2018 | $3,233 | Yes: the signal from 17 Dec 2018, which began 2 days after it |
| 21 Nov 2022 | $15,760 | Yes: the signal from 13 Jul 2022, which began 131 days before it |
| 30 Jun 2026 | $58,532 | No signal on within 90 days |
Method and sources
Signals. Bottom signal: the 150-day exponential average below 0.745 × the 471-day average. The levels are the ones commonly quoted for this indicator, fixed before any result was looked at. A signal starts on the first day the condition holds after it has been off for at least 30 days, so a run of days counts once (the same rule as the signal lab).
Point in time. The reading is the ratio of the two published lines; both are trailing averages of daily closes, so each day uses only closes up to it. A ratio below 1 means the lines have crossed. Daily readings are closed UTC days from 30 October 2011 to 26 October 2026; the open day is never used.
Outcomes. The change of the BTC daily close from the close of the signal's first day to the close 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later, against the same change from every day the indicator has a reading (the base rate). Signals whose windows overlap share the same price moves, so the tables also count independent signals: windows that do not overlap, counted from the first. Recent signals wait for their outcomes.
Cycle tops and bottoms. A cycle top is an all-time-high close followed by a fall of at least 75% before any higher close; the latest all-time high starts the current cycle. A cycle bottom is the lowest close between two tops; the current cycle's bottom is its lowest close so far, so it can still move. A signal is a hit when a turn of its kind came while it was on or within 90 days either side (from 90 days before its first day to 90 days after its last), and a false alarm otherwise; a signal still on, or ended less than 90 days ago, waits. The verdict compares each signal with the median change of every day in the same four-year halving cycle, so the outsized early years neither flatter nor penalise later signals.
Plans. The chart is Free, so every signal and today's reading are shown to everyone.
Sources. Our own Bitcoin node and BTC/USD price record, through the published chart linked below. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast and nothing here is investment advice.
Questions
Does the Pi Cycle Bottom work?
How accurate is the Pi Cycle Bottom?
Has the Pi Cycle Bottom given false signals?
Is the Pi Cycle Bottom signalling now?
How is this backtest calculated?
Each signal is the first day the Pi Cycle Bottom meets its level after at least 30 days without it, using only data that existed that day. We measure the BTC price change 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later against the same change from every day and from the days of the same four-year cycle, and the distance to the nearest cycle top or bottom.
Open the Pi Cycle Bottom chartAll free tools
Signals and outcomes are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and price data, using only data that existed on each day. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.