Does the Pi Cycle Top work?
The 111-day average crossing to or above twice the 350-day average. Held up: 2 of 4 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle top, catching 2 of the 4 tops in its record, and a year later the price had changed by a median −50.2%, against +99.8% for a typical day of the same cycles. With 3 independent signals, chance cannot be ruled out.
- The 111-day average crossing to or above twice the 350-day average: 4 signals; 2 of 4 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle top (2 false alarms); it caught 2 of the 4 cycle tops in its record.
What followed the signals
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 4 4 independent | −18.0% | −19.5% | 0% | +0.7% | 55% | +1.0% |
| 30 days | 4 4 independent | −23.5% | −23.5% | 0% | +3.0% | 57% | +4.2% |
| 90 days | 4 4 independent | −47.4% | −48.6% | 0% | +10.3% | 60% | +9.8% |
| 365 days | 4 3 independent | −50.2% | +9.0% | 25% | +87.1% | 71% | +99.8% |
Every signal
The 111-day average crossing to or above twice the 350-day average
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle top | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2013 125 days in signal | 1.008 | $142.63 | −34.8% | −21.3% | −52.0% | +219% | 242 days before the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −88.5% from it | False alarm |
| 3 Dec 2013 112 days in signal | 1.004 | $1,155 | −10.5% | −25.8% | −42.7% | −67.4% | 1 days before the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −6.7% from it | Hit |
| 16 Dec 2017 78 days in signal | 1.001 | $19,345 | −25.6% | −29.5% | −57.2% | −83.2% | the same day the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price 0.0% from it | Hit |
| 12 Apr 2021 11 days in signal | 1.000 | $59,846 | −7.0% | −17.3% | −42.8% | −33.0% | 210 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −11.4% from it | False alarm |
| Cycle top | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2013 | $1,238 | Yes: the signal from 3 Dec 2013, which began 1 days before it |
| 16 Dec 2017 | $19,345 | Yes: the signal from 16 Dec 2017, which began that day it |
| 8 Nov 2021 | $67,549 | No signal on within 90 days |
| 6 Oct 2025 | $124,766 | No signal on within 90 days |
Method and sources
Signals. Top signal: the 111-day average crossing to or above twice the 350-day average. The levels are the ones commonly quoted for this indicator, fixed before any result was looked at. A signal starts on the first day the condition holds after it has been off for at least 30 days, so a run of days counts once (the same rule as the signal lab).
Point in time. The reading is the ratio of the two published lines (the 111-day average divided by twice the 350-day average); both are trailing averages of daily closes, so each day uses only closes up to it. A ratio of 1 or more means the lines have crossed. Daily readings are closed UTC days from 1 July 2011 to 26 October 2026; the open day is never used.
Outcomes. The change of the BTC daily close from the close of the signal's first day to the close 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later, against the same change from every day the indicator has a reading (the base rate). Signals whose windows overlap share the same price moves, so the tables also count independent signals: windows that do not overlap, counted from the first. Recent signals wait for their outcomes.
Cycle tops and bottoms. A cycle top is an all-time-high close followed by a fall of at least 75% before any higher close; the latest all-time high starts the current cycle. A cycle bottom is the lowest close between two tops; the current cycle's bottom is its lowest close so far, so it can still move. A signal is a hit when a turn of its kind came while it was on or within 90 days either side (from 90 days before its first day to 90 days after its last), and a false alarm otherwise; a signal still on, or ended less than 90 days ago, waits. The verdict compares each signal with the median change of every day in the same four-year halving cycle, so the outsized early years neither flatter nor penalise later signals.
Plans. The chart is Free, so every signal and today's reading are shown to everyone.
Sources. Our own Bitcoin node and BTC/USD price record, through the published chart linked below. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast and nothing here is investment advice.
Questions
Does the Pi Cycle Top work?
How accurate is the Pi Cycle Top?
Has the Pi Cycle Top given false signals?
Is the Pi Cycle Top signalling now?
How is this backtest calculated?
Each signal is the first day the Pi Cycle Top meets its level after at least 30 days without it, using only data that existed that day. We measure the BTC price change 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later against the same change from every day and from the days of the same four-year cycle, and the distance to the nearest cycle top or bottom.
Open the Pi Cycle Top chartAll free tools
Signals and outcomes are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and price data, using only data that existed on each day. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.