Does Reserve Risk work?
Reserve Risk in the top fifth of its last four years. Mixed: 4 of 7 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle top, catching 3 of the 4 tops in its record; a year later the price had changed by a median +5.2%, against +79.4% for a typical day of the same cycles. With 4 independent signals, chance cannot be ruled out.
Reserve Risk in the bottom fifth of its last four years. Mixed: 3 of 9 signals were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom, catching 3 of the 5 bottoms in its record; a year later the price had changed by a median +137%, against +79.4% for a typical day of the same cycles.
- Reserve Risk in the top fifth of its last four years: 7 signals; 4 of 7 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle top (3 false alarms); it caught 3 of the 4 cycle tops in its record.
- Reserve Risk in the bottom fifth of its last four years: 9 signals; 3 of 9 decided were on within 90 days of a cycle bottom (6 false alarms); it caught 3 of the 5 cycle bottoms in its record.
What followed the signals
Reserve Risk in the top fifth of its last four years
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 7 7 independent | −0.8% | +6.4% | 43% | +0.8% | 55% | +1.0% |
| 30 days | 7 7 independent | −0.5% | +2.0% | 43% | +3.2% | 57% | +4.2% |
| 90 days | 7 5 independent | +3.5% | +13.7% | 57% | +10.8% | 60% | +7.4% |
| 365 days | 7 4 independent | +5.2% | +58.9% | 57% | +88.7% | 72% | +79.4% |
Reserve Risk in the bottom fifth of its last four years
| After | Signals | Median change | Mean change | Share up | All days: median | All days: share up | Same cycles: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 9 9 independent | +1.7% | +45.0% | 67% | +0.8% | 55% | +1.0% |
| 30 days | 9 9 independent | −2.3% | +46.9% | 44% | +3.2% | 57% | +4.2% |
| 90 days | 9 8 independent | +20.0% | +46.7% | 67% | +10.8% | 60% | +12.3% |
| 365 days | 8 5 independent | +137% | +186% | 75% | +88.7% | 72% | +79.4% |
Every signal
Reserve Risk in the top fifth of its last four years
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle top | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2013 7 days in signal | 81th percentile | $135.00 | +22.2% | −27.3% | −33.0% | +223% | 245 days before the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −89.1% from it | False alarm |
| 17 Nov 2013 44 days in signal | 81th percentile | $528.30 | +50.5% | +35.3% | −29.8% | −27.2% | 17 days before the 2013 top (4 Dec 2013); price −57.3% from it | Hit |
| 11 Jun 2017 | 80th percentile | $2,973 | −14.6% | −21.8% | +45.8% | +132% | 188 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −84.6% from it | False alarm |
| 20 Jul 2017 296 days in signal | 81th percentile | $2,866 | −6.1% | +44.8% | +94.5% | +156% | 149 days before the 2017 top (16 Dec 2017); price −85.2% from it | Hit |
| 7 Jan 2021 61 days in signal | 80th percentile | $39,479 | −0.8% | −0.5% | +41.7% | +5.2% | 305 days before the 2021 top (8 Nov 2021); price −41.6% from it | False alarm |
| 2 later signals | With a free account |
| Cycle top | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2013 | $1,238 | Yes: the signal from 17 Nov 2013, which began 17 days before it |
| 16 Dec 2017 | $19,345 | Yes: the signal from 20 Jul 2017, which began 149 days before it |
| 8 Nov 2021 | $67,549 | No signal on within 90 days |
| 6 Oct 2025 | $124,766 | With a free account |
Reserve Risk in the bottom fifth of its last four years
| First day | Reading | BTC close | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | 365 days | Nearest cycle bottom | Near a turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2014 4 days in signal | 0th percentile | $111.92 | +433% | +404% | +337% | +118% | 328 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price −32.1% from it | False alarm |
| 15 Aug 2014 453 days in signal | 20th percentile | $496.45 | +4.0% | −3.8% | −13.6% | −47.5% | 152 days before the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +201% from it | Hit |
| 31 Jan 2016 5 days in signal | 20th percentile | $369.84 | +2.2% | +17.4% | +21.3% | +149% | 382 days after the 2015 bottom (14 Jan 2015); price +124% from it | False alarm |
| 17 Dec 2019 2 days in signal | 16th percentile | $6,636 | +9.4% | +31.4% | −24.0% | +222% | 367 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +105% from it | False alarm |
| 8 Mar 2020 89 days in signal | 20th percentile | $8,058 | −33.5% | −10.6% | +20.0% | +550% | 449 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +149% from it | False alarm |
| 3 Sep 2020 21 days in signal | 18th percentile | $10,175 | +1.7% | +3.7% | +89.0% | +392% | 628 days after the 2018 bottom (15 Dec 2018); price +215% from it | False alarm |
| 8 May 2022 388 days in signal | 15th percentile | $34,034 | −8.0% | −8.6% | −32.5% | −18.4% | 197 days before the 2022 bottom (21 Nov 2022); price +116% from it | Hit |
| 2 later signals | With a free account |
| Cycle bottom | BTC close | Signal on within 90 days |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Nov 2011 | $2.05 | No signal on within 90 days |
| 14 Jan 2015 | $164.92 | Yes: the signal from 15 Aug 2014, which began 152 days before it |
| 15 Dec 2018 | $3,233 | No signal on within 90 days |
| 21 Nov 2022 | $15,760 | With a free account |
| 30 Jun 2026 | $58,532 | With a free account |
Method and sources
Signals. Top signal: Reserve Risk in the top fifth of its last four years; Bottom signal: Reserve Risk in the bottom fifth of its last four years. The levels are the ones commonly quoted for this indicator, fixed before any result was looked at. A signal starts on the first day the condition holds after it has been off for at least 30 days, so a run of days counts once (the same rule as the signal lab).
Point in time. Reserve Risk has no fixed thresholds on our scale, so the reading is placed among its own last four years (1,461 daily readings up to and including the day), the rule our Reserve Risk pages use; each day uses only readings up to it. Daily readings are closed UTC days from 19 August 2011 to 26 October 2026; the open day is never used.
Outcomes. The change of the BTC daily close from the close of the signal's first day to the close 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later, against the same change from every day the indicator has a reading (the base rate). Signals whose windows overlap share the same price moves, so the tables also count independent signals: windows that do not overlap, counted from the first. Recent signals wait for their outcomes.
Cycle tops and bottoms. A cycle top is an all-time-high close followed by a fall of at least 75% before any higher close; the latest all-time high starts the current cycle. A cycle bottom is the lowest close between two tops; the current cycle's bottom is its lowest close so far, so it can still move. A signal is a hit when a turn of its kind came while it was on or within 90 days either side (from 90 days before its first day to 90 days after its last), and a false alarm otherwise; a signal still on, or ended less than 90 days ago, waits. The verdict compares each signal with the median change of every day in the same four-year halving cycle, so the outsized early years neither flatter nor penalise later signals.
Plans. The chart is one of the classics a free account opens: everyone sees today's value and state and the signals up to 31 December 2022; a free account shows the later signals too.
Sources. Our own Bitcoin node and BTC/USD price record, through the published chart linked below. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast and nothing here is investment advice.
Questions
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How is this backtest calculated?
Each signal is the first day Reserve Risk meets its level after at least 30 days without it, using only data that existed that day. We measure the BTC price change 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later against the same change from every day and from the days of the same four-year cycle, and the distance to the nearest cycle top or bottom.
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Signals and outcomes are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and price data, using only data that existed on each day. Past signals describe what happened; they are not a forecast, and nothing here is investment advice.