Unfilled gaps near the price
| Weekend of | Friday close (the level) | From today's price | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sep 2024 | $52,888 | −29.0% | +2.98% |
| 9 Feb 2024 | $47,507 | −36.2% | +1.32% |
| 27 Oct 2023 | $33,829 | −54.6% | +1.80% |
| 20 Oct 2023 | $29,581 | −60.3% | +0.57% |
| 13 Oct 2023 | $26,981 | −63.8% | +0.73% |
| 10 Mar 2023 | $20,077 | −73.0% | +5.96% |
| 6 Jan 2023 | $16,931 | −77.3% | +0.19% |
| 16 Oct 2020 | $11,313 | −84.8% | +1.25% |
12 weekends since December 2017 have a Friday level the price has not traded back to; the table lists the 8 nearest. A level counts as filled once an hourly bar of the index trades through it.
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Every weekend, filled or not
Of 463 weekends since December 2017, the price traded back through the Friday level within a day after the reopen in 56%, within a week in 81% and within a month in 90%. The largest gap was +13.58% on the weekend of 1 Jan 2021.
Why bitcoin has a CME gap
Bitcoin trades every hour of every day, but the CME's bitcoin futures stop on Friday afternoon in Chicago and reopen on Sunday evening. When the price moves over the weekend, the futures chart shows a jump between Friday's close and Sunday's open: the gap. Many traders expect the price to come back and fill it, partly because the futures' own chart has an empty space there and partly because enough traders act on the idea to make it happen often.
Gaps are not magnets. Most small ones fill within days because the price usually moves around that much anyway; large gaps from strong trends can stay open for months or years. The table above lists the open ones near today's price, which are the levels traders will be watching.
Method and sources
CryptoKeyhole measures each weekend on its own BTC/USD index, built hourly from the public spot markets of Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp and Bitfinex: the Friday level is the index price at 16:00 US Central time (the close of the hour bar ending then) and the reopen level the price at 17:00 on Sunday (the open of the hour bar starting then), 21:00 and 22:00 UTC while US daylight saving time is in force, otherwise 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. This is a spot proxy: it does not use CME's futures prices, which trade at their own premium to spot and are licensed data, so the futures' own gap differs by that premium. Exchange holidays are not modelled. A gap is filled once an hourly bar after the reopen traded through the Friday level.
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Questions
What is the CME gap in bitcoin?
The difference between the price at which the CME's bitcoin futures closed on Friday and the price at which they reopened on Sunday, created because bitcoin keeps trading over the weekend. CryptoKeyhole measures it on its own spot index at the futures' session times.
Where is the nearest unfilled CME gap?
Do CME gaps always fill?
Figures on this page come from CryptoKeyhole's own collection of the public market data of the exchanges named on it, and refresh automatically. Nothing here is investment advice.