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The bands today
| Band | Distance from trend | Price range today | Days | Share | Last day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beyond the bands | above +2.5σ | above $33,234 | 33 | 0.8% | 15 January 2018 |
| 9. Blow-off | +2.0σ to +2.5σ | $21,780 – $33,234 | 44 | 1.1% | 19 February 2018 |
| 8. Overheated | +1.5σ to +2.0σ | $14,273 – $21,780 | 145 | 3.5% | 8 December 2021 |
| 7. Hot | +1.0σ to +1.5σ | $9,354 – $14,273 | 438 | 10.7% | 19 April 2022 |
| 6. Warm | +0.5σ to +1.0σ | $6,130 – $9,354 | 374 | 9.1% | 22 August 2025 |
| 5. Upper trend | 0σ to +0.5σ | $4,017 – $6,130 | 750 | 18.2% | 12 November 2025 |
| 4. Lower trend | −0.5σ to 0σ | $2,633 – $4,017 | 961 | 23.4% | 6 October 2026 |
| 3. Cool | −1.0σ to −0.5σ | $1,725 – $2,633 | 679 | 16.5% | 7 November 2026 |
| 2. Discount | −1.5σ to −1.0σ | $1,131 – $1,725 | 477 | 11.6% | 1 July 2026 |
| 1. Deep discount | below −1.5σ | below $1,131 | 210 | 5.1% | 21 April 2020 |
Year by year
| Year | Highest close | Its band | Lowest close | Its band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $2.77 7 Aug 2015 | Beyond the bands +6.98σ | $0.4336 20 Oct 2015 | Cool −0.87σ |
| 2016 | $20.70 16 Jun 2016 | Upper trend +0.25σ | $0.9278 2 Jan 2016 | Deep discount −1.59σ |
| 2017 | $799.98 19 Dec 2017 | Blow-off +2.04σ | $8.18 1 Jan 2017 | Deep discount −2.07σ |
| 2018 | $1,385 13 Jan 2018 | Beyond the bands +2.61σ | $83.82 14 Dec 2018 | Deep discount −1.51σ |
| 2019 | $334.86 26 Jun 2019 | Lower trend −0.24σ | $104.45 29 Jan 2019 | Discount −1.34σ |
| 2020 | $752.17 30 Dec 2020 | Lower trend −0.12σ | $109.28 12 Mar 2020 | Deep discount −1.99σ |
| 2021 | $4,808 8 Nov 2021 | Overheated +1.70σ | $728.91 1 Jan 2021 | Lower trend −0.16σ |
| 2022 | $3,828 2 Jan 2022 | Hot +1.37σ | $995.13 18 Jun 2022 | Lower trend −0.40σ |
| 2023 | $2,378 27 Dec 2023 | Upper trend +0.13σ | $1,200 1 Jan 2023 | Lower trend −0.37σ |
| 2024 | $4,065 11 Mar 2024 | Warm +0.70σ | $2,210 3 Jan 2024 | Upper trend +0.03σ |
| 2025 | $4,832 22 Aug 2025 | Warm +0.51σ | $1,473 8 Apr 2025 | Cool −0.80σ |
| 2026 | $3,355 14 Jan 2026 | Lower trend −0.02σ | $1,568 25 Jun 2026 | Discount −1.03σ |
The fit, its window and when it is refitted
- Regression line: log10(price) = −4.1721 + 2.1511 × log10(days since 30 July 2015), least squares over the 3,800 daily closes from 7 August 2015 to 31 December 2025 (2026 coefficients).
- σ, the typical deviation from the line, is 0.3671 in log10 terms: a factor of 2.33 in price. Band edges are the line × 10^(kσ) for k = −1.5, −1, −0.5, 0, +0.5, +1, +1.5, +2 and +2.5, as on our Bitcoin rainbow chart.
- Time is counted from Ethereum's genesis block (30 July 2015); our ETH/USD index starts on 7 August 2015, a week later, so the fit covers the whole traded history.
- 43.4% of the 4,111 closes so far sat above the line, 56.6% below it.
- Refitted once a year: after the 31 December 2026 close, the 2027 line is fitted to every close through that day, and the whole history is redrawn with it.
The fit weights every day equally and assumes the spread around the line stays the same. Because the line is fitted to all the closes in its window, the band a past day sits in is judged with hindsight. A young coin's trend is also less settled than Bitcoin's: a few more years of prices can move the line a long way.
Questions
What band is Ethereum in on the rainbow chart today?
How is the Ethereum rainbow chart calculated?
A least-squares line through log10 of the ETH daily close against log10 of the days since Ethereum's genesis block on 30 July 2015, with bands at half-standard-deviation steps of the fit around it, refitted once a year on our own daily closes.
Can the Ethereum rainbow chart predict the price?
No. It shows where the price sits against the trend of its own past. The bands are drawn past today by the same formula only to show where they lie; the price does not have to follow them.
Open the rainbow chartPower-law quantile chartCreate a free accountAll free tools
Figures on this page are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and the price data we collect, and refreshed automatically; estimates say how they are made. Nothing here is investment advice.