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Three models, a year out
ModelRange for 8 Nov 2027: 80%, and the middle half darkerHow often past ranges held a year on
Resampled paths
The last four years of daily moves, reshuffled in 30-day blocks into 10,000 paths. The trend of those four years comes along.
$1,100 to $5,84089% held
wider than it needed to be
Volatility cone
Today's price, spread by the last year's daily swings. No trend: as likely up as down.
$984 to $4,60077% held
close to its promise
Holders' cost band
What holders paid on average (the realized price, from our node), times the multiples the price has traded at on 80% of past days.
$1,580 to $5,78080% held
close to its promise
Every model's range for 8 Nov 2027 takes in $1,580 to $4,600: that stretch is where they agree. The closest to its promise a year out has been the holders' cost band: its 80% ranges held 80% of the time. The furthest from it has been the resampled paths, at 89%, with the price ending below its range most of the times it missed. A wide range is not a cautious one unless it also holds: what counts is how often the price ended inside.
How often ranges like these held
An honest 80% range should hold about 80% of the time. Less, and the model was too sure of itself; more, and it was wider than it needed to be.
| Model | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resampled paths | 83%of 375 | 88%of 366 | 88%of 353 | 89%of 327 |
| Volatility cone | 77%of 3,718 | 76%of 3,658 | 75%of 3,568 | 77%of 3,383 |
| Holders' cost band | 92%of 479 | 86%of 471 | 79%of 458 | 80%of 431 |
Furthest miss of the resampled paths: the range made on 10 April 2024 reached down to −26% over 1 year; the price moved −57%.
Each test uses only what was known on the day: the volatility, the paths and the bands come from the days before it, the power-law fit from the closes before that 1 January. A range is then checked against the close that followed. The ranges overlap from one day to the next, so neighbouring tests are not independent, and a single strong run can sink or lift a whole year of them.
From a month to a year
| Ahead | Date | Middle half | 80% range | Past 80% ranges held |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 8 Dec 2026 | $1,930 to $2,390 | $1,710 to $2,770 | 83% |
| 3 months | 6 Feb 2027 | $1,790 to $2,740 | $1,480 to $3,350 | 88% |
| 6 months | 7 May 2027 | $1,710 to $3,120 | $1,310 to $4,120 | 88% |
| 1 year | 8 Nov 2027 | $1,640 to $3,880 | $1,100 to $5,840 | 89% |
The volatility cone, which leaves the trend out, gives $1,450 to $3,120 in 3 months, $984 to $4,600 in a year (80%).
Against what holders paid
| Of every past day | Price ÷ realized price | Price at that multiple today |
|---|---|---|
| 10th percentile | 0.70× | $1,580 |
| 25th percentile | 0.91× | $2,060 |
| Median | 1.24× | $2,800 |
| 75th percentile | 1.83× | $4,130 |
| 90th percentile | 2.56× | $5,780 |
The realized price is what the coins in circulation cost when they last moved on chain, counted from our own Ethereum node: today $2,261. Ethereum trades at 0.94× it, higher than on 26% of past days. Held at today's level, the band's 80% range a year out held 80% of the time; the realized price itself moves, rising in rallies as coins change hands higher, and that is most of the misses. Open the realized price chart.
How calm or wild it is now
46% a yearDays at each level of one-year volatility217%
Over the last year Ethereum moved 3.1% on a typical day, 60% a year in annual terms: calmer than on 90% of the days we can measure, against a median of 93%. The last 30 days ran at 49% a year. That is 1.4 times Bitcoin's 44%, so its ranges are about 1.4 times as wide in log terms. The cone uses this year's swings as they are, so a quiet year draws a narrow cone; quiet spells have often ended in a large move, which is one reason ranges miss.
How the ranges are made and tested
- Volatility cone. The standard deviation of the last 365 daily log returns (closed UTC days; a day with a missing close leaves its return out, and the cone needs at least 300), scaled by the square root of the days ahead. The middle half is today's price × e±0.674σ√t, the 80% range e±1.282σ√t. No drift: the middle of the range is today's price.
- Resampled paths. 10,000 paths of 365 days, each built from randomly chosen 30-day runs of the last four years' daily log returns (1,461 days), so streaks and calm spells stay as they happened and the four years' trend comes along. The ranges are the paths' 25th and 75th (middle half) and 10th and 90th (80%) percentiles on each day. The random draws are seeded, so the same closes give the same ranges.
- Holders' cost band. Ethereum's realized price, from our own node, times the 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the ratio of price to realized price on every earlier day. The band assumes the realized price stays where it is.
The record is a walk-forward test: on every past day (every seventh for the resampled paths and the cost band) we make the range with only the data available then, and check it against the close the horizon later. The volatility cone and resampled paths need a year and four years of history first; the cost band needs two years of the ratio. Horizons with fewer than 180 test days say "not yet". The models' settings (the windows, the block length, the percentiles) were chosen on 8 November 2026 with the whole history in view, and are kept fixed so the record stays comparable.
Prices are Ethereum's daily closes as the site publishes them (the price chart). Everything is recomputed each hour as the price moves; the records change once a day, when a new close is in.
Questions
What will Ethereum be worth in a year?
Which Ethereum price model has the best track record?
Is this a forecast?
No. Each range is what a simple model allows if its assumption holds, and the assumption is written next to it: that the next year's daily moves look like recent ones, that the price keeps to its past multiples of what holders paid, or that a long-run trend or an earlier cycle continues. The record shows how often that has been true. A range that held 80% of the time still missed one year in five.
How volatile is Ethereum?
Open the Ethereum price chartAll free tools
Figures on this page are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and the price data we collect, and refreshed automatically; estimates say how they are made. Nothing here is investment advice.