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The bands today
| Band | Distance from trend | Price range today | Days | Share | Last day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beyond the bands | above +2.5σ | above $3.87 | 37 | 0.9% | 9 June 2021 |
| 9. Blow-off | +2.0σ to +2.5σ | $2.35 – $3.87 | 99 | 2.4% | 9 November 2021 |
| 8. Overheated | +1.5σ to +2.0σ | $1.42 – $2.35 | 147 | 3.6% | 15 January 2022 |
| 7. Hot | +1.0σ to +1.5σ | $0.8638 – $1.42 | 266 | 6.5% | 8 December 2024 |
| 6. Warm | +0.5σ to +1.0σ | $0.5239 – $0.8638 | 448 | 10.9% | 3 February 2025 |
| 5. Upper trend | 0σ to +0.5σ | $0.3178 – $0.5239 | 953 | 23.2% | 9 October 2025 |
| 4. Lower trend | −0.5σ to 0σ | $0.1927 – $0.3178 | 842 | 20.5% | 14 January 2026 |
| 3. Cool | −1.0σ to −0.5σ | $0.1169 – $0.1927 | 484 | 11.8% | 1 June 2026 |
| 2. Discount | −1.5σ to −1.0σ | $0.0709 – $0.1169 | 458 | 11.1% | 7 November 2026 |
| 1. Deep discount | below −1.5σ | below $0.0709 | 377 | 9.2% | 31 December 2020 |
Year by year
| Year | Highest close | Its band | Lowest close | Its band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $0.0001709 7 Aug 2015 | Overheated +1.62σ | $0.0001139 25 Oct 2015 | Warm +0.67σ |
| 2016 | $0.0004424 27 Jan 2016 | Hot +1.45σ | $0.0001345 4 Jan 2016 | Upper trend +0.39σ |
| 2017 | $0.009321 29 Dec 2017 | Overheated +1.64σ | $0.0001912 18 Feb 2017 | Discount −1.19σ |
| 2018 | $0.01682 7 Jan 2018 | Blow-off +2.20σ | $0.002023 15 Dec 2018 | Cool −0.84σ |
| 2019 | $0.00384 5 Jul 2019 | Cool −0.66σ | $0.001805 6 Feb 2019 | Discount −1.08σ |
| 2020 | $0.004778 21 Dec 2020 | Discount −1.49σ | $0.001582 16 Mar 2020 | Deep discount −2.08σ |
| 2021 | $0.6898 7 May 2021 | Beyond the bands +3.25σ | $0.00568 1 Jan 2021 | Discount −1.33σ |
| 2022 | $0.1845 15 Jan 2022 | Overheated +1.54σ | $0.0529 18 Jun 2022 | Upper trend +0.06σ |
| 2023 | $0.1019 10 Dec 2023 | Upper trend +0.00σ | $0.05788 12 Oct 2023 | Lower trend −0.49σ |
| 2024 | $0.4664 8 Dec 2024 | Hot +1.10σ | $0.07795 25 Jan 2024 | Lower trend −0.32σ |
| 2025 | $0.4153 17 Jan 2025 | Warm +0.94σ | $0.1175 31 Dec 2025 | Cool −0.69σ |
| 2026 | $0.1517 5 Jan 2026 | Lower trend −0.44σ | $0.06909 6 Aug 2026 | Discount −1.44σ |
The fit, its window and when it is refitted
- Regression line: log10(price) = −16.9182 + 4.4694 × log10(days since 6 December 2013), least squares over the 3,800 daily closes from 7 August 2015 to 31 December 2025 (2026 coefficients).
- σ, the typical deviation from the line, is 0.4343 in log10 terms: a factor of 2.72 in price. Band edges are the line × 10^(kσ) for k = −1.5, −1, −0.5, 0, +0.5, +1, +1.5, +2 and +2.5, as on our Bitcoin rainbow chart.
- Time is counted from the Dogecoin genesis block (6 December 2013), but our DOGE/USD daily closes start on 7 August 2015, so the years before that are not in the fit. A fit on a shorter, younger history moves more when it is refitted than Bitcoin's does.
- 47.4% of the 4,111 closes so far sat above the line, 52.6% below it.
- Refitted once a year: after the 31 December 2026 close, the 2027 line is fitted to every close through that day, and the whole history is redrawn with it.
The fit weights every day equally and assumes the spread around the line stays the same. Because the line is fitted to all the closes in its window, the band a past day sits in is judged with hindsight. A young coin's trend is also less settled than Bitcoin's: a few more years of prices can move the line a long way.
Questions
What band is Dogecoin in on the rainbow chart today?
How is the Dogecoin rainbow chart calculated?
A least-squares line through log10 of the DOGE daily close against log10 of the days since Dogecoin's genesis block on 6 December 2013, with bands at half-standard-deviation steps of the fit around it, refitted once a year on our own daily closes.
Can the Dogecoin rainbow chart predict the price?
No. It shows where the price sits against the trend of its own past. The bands are drawn past today by the same formula only to show where they lie; the price does not have to follow them.
Open the rainbow chartPower-law quantile chartCreate a free accountAll free tools
Figures on this page are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and the price data we collect, and refreshed automatically; estimates say how they are made. Nothing here is investment advice.