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Today against the lines
| Line | Value today | Price against it | Closes below it so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | $10,788 | −80.3% | 99.1% |
| 95% | $8,799 | −75.8% | 95.4% |
| 75% | $5,373 | −60.4% | 76.9% |
| 50% (median) | $4,206 | −49.4% | 53.8% |
| 25% | $3,484 | −38.9% | 30.0% |
| 5% | $2,021 | +5.3% | 6.1% |
| 1% | $1,330 | +60.0% | 0.9% |
The lines at later dates
| Date | 5% line | Median line | 95% line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2027 | $2,091 | $4,334 | $8,982 |
| 1 January 2028 | $2,604 | $5,250 | $10,259 |
| 1 January 2030 | $3,848 | $7,390 | $13,001 |
These are the formulas evaluated at those dates, nothing more. They assume the relationship of the past holds, which no model can promise; they are not a forecast.
How the position has moved
| Zone | Range | Days | Share | Last day in zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near the bottom of its history | below 5 | 250 | 6.1% | 17 August 2026 |
| Below trend | 5 to 25 | 984 | 23.9% | 7 November 2026 |
| Around trend | 25 to 75 | 1,926 | 46.8% | 28 January 2026 |
| Above trend | 75 to 95 | 760 | 18.5% | 8 October 2025 |
| Near the top of its history | 95 and above | 191 | 4.6% | 4 January 2022 |
The fit, its window and when it is refitted
- Window: the 3,800 daily closes from 7 August 2015 to 31 December 2025; 2026 coefficients.
- Each line: log10(price) = a + b × log10(days since 30 July 2015), so price = 10^a × days^b. The median line today is $4,206 (a = −4.652, b = 2.289).
- The 1% line has slope 2.493 and the 99% line 1.516: the range between them narrows with time, as the coin's swings have shrunk.
- For comparison, an ordinary least-squares fit over the same closes gives an exponent of 2.151, with a typical deviation of a factor 2.33; that fit is the one the Ethereum rainbow chart uses.
- Time is counted from Ethereum's genesis block (30 July 2015); our ETH/USD index starts on 7 August 2015, a week later, so the fit covers the whole traded history.
Quantile regression minimises the sum of absolute distances from the line, weighted q above it and 1 − q below, for each level q from 1% to 99%. The position (0 to 100) reads where the price sits among the 99 lines. The fit is refitted once a year and judges the past with hindsight.
Questions
Where is Ethereum on its power-law chart today?
Does Ethereum follow a power law?
Roughly, over the years we have prices for: on log-log axes its closes lie around a straight line with wide swings either side. The fit is younger and less settled than Bitcoin's. Time is counted from Ethereum's genesis block (30 July 2015); our ETH/USD index starts on 7 August 2015, a week later, so the fit covers the whole traded history.
Can the Ethereum power law predict the price?
No. The lines describe where the price has sat relative to its age so far; drawn ahead they only show where the formulas lead if that relationship held.
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Figures on this page are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and the price data we collect, and refreshed automatically; estimates say how they are made. Nothing here is investment advice.