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The bands today
| Band | Distance from trend | Price range today | Days | Share | Last day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beyond the bands | above +2.5σ | above $1,639 | 63 | 1.5% | 6 March 2018 |
| 9. Blow-off | +2.0σ to +2.5σ | $1,081 – $1,639 | 81 | 2.0% | 11 May 2021 |
| 8. Overheated | +1.5σ to +2.0σ | $712.95 – $1,081 | 133 | 3.2% | 14 November 2021 |
| 7. Hot | +1.0σ to +1.5σ | $470.15 – $712.95 | 451 | 10.9% | 3 December 2021 |
| 6. Warm | +0.5σ to +1.0σ | $310.04 – $470.15 | 460 | 11.2% | 3 April 2022 |
| 5. Upper trend | 0σ to +0.5σ | $204.45 – $310.04 | 356 | 8.6% | 2 July 2023 |
| 4. Lower trend | −0.5σ to 0σ | $134.82 – $204.45 | 858 | 20.8% | 9 October 2025 |
| 3. Cool | −1.0σ to −0.5σ | $88.91 – $134.82 | 860 | 20.9% | 13 January 2026 |
| 2. Discount | −1.5σ to −1.0σ | $58.63 – $88.91 | 580 | 14.1% | 28 October 2026 |
| 1. Deep discount | below −1.5σ | below $58.63 | 277 | 6.7% | 7 November 2026 |
Year by year
| Year | Highest close | Its band | Lowest close | Its band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $4.67 31 Jul 2015 | Lower trend −0.44σ | $2.65 3 Sep 2015 | Discount −1.19σ |
| 2016 | $5.70 16 Jun 2016 | Cool −0.82σ | $2.93 12 Feb 2016 | Discount −1.39σ |
| 2017 | $359.40 18 Dec 2017 | Beyond the bands +3.33σ | $3.69 25 Jan 2017 | Deep discount −1.70σ |
| 2018 | $279.42 6 Jan 2018 | Beyond the bands +3.00σ | $23.02 13 Dec 2018 | Lower trend −0.41σ |
| 2019 | $142.25 22 Jun 2019 | Overheated +1.57σ | $29.59 13 Jan 2019 | Lower trend −0.14σ |
| 2020 | $130.05 30 Dec 2020 | Warm +0.92σ | $29.88 12 Mar 2020 | Cool −0.57σ |
| 2021 | $387.80 9 May 2021 | Blow-off +2.12σ | $107.29 20 Jul 2021 | Warm +0.52σ |
| 2022 | $151.20 2 Jan 2022 | Warm +0.79σ | $43.48 13 Jun 2022 | Cool −0.83σ |
| 2023 | $113.59 2 Jul 2023 | Upper trend +0.04σ | $58.85 11 Sep 2023 | Cool −0.80σ |
| 2024 | $135.93 6 Dec 2024 | Lower trend −0.08σ | $55.99 7 Aug 2024 | Discount −1.07σ |
| 2025 | $137.04 17 Jan 2025 | Lower trend −0.10σ | $69.15 8 Apr 2025 | Cool −0.97σ |
| 2026 | $83.96 6 Jan 2026 | Cool −0.90σ | $40.92 25 Jun 2026 | Deep discount −1.86σ |
The fit, its window and when it is refitted
- Regression line: log10(price) = −6.9828 + 2.4841 × log10(days since 7 October 2011), least squares over the 3,808 daily closes from 30 July 2015 to 31 December 2025 (2026 coefficients).
- σ, the typical deviation from the line, is 0.3616 in log10 terms: a factor of 2.30 in price. Band edges are the line × 10^(kσ) for k = −1.5, −1, −0.5, 0, +0.5, +1, +1.5, +2 and +2.5, as on our Bitcoin rainbow chart.
- Time is counted from the Litecoin genesis block (7 October 2011), but our LTC/USD daily closes start on 30 July 2015, so the years before that are not in the fit. A fit on a shorter, younger history moves more when it is refitted than Bitcoin's does.
- 37.5% of the 4,119 closes so far sat above the line, 62.5% below it.
- Refitted once a year: after the 31 December 2026 close, the 2027 line is fitted to every close through that day, and the whole history is redrawn with it.
The fit weights every day equally and assumes the spread around the line stays the same. Because the line is fitted to all the closes in its window, the band a past day sits in is judged with hindsight. A young coin's trend is also less settled than Bitcoin's: a few more years of prices can move the line a long way.
Questions
What band is Litecoin in on the rainbow chart today?
How is the Litecoin rainbow chart calculated?
A least-squares line through log10 of the LTC daily close against log10 of the days since Litecoin's genesis block on 7 October 2011, with bands at half-standard-deviation steps of the fit around it, refitted once a year on our own daily closes.
Can the Litecoin rainbow chart predict the price?
No. It shows where the price sits against the trend of its own past. The bands are drawn past today by the same formula only to show where they lie; the price does not have to follow them.
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Figures on this page are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own Bitcoin node and the price data we collect, and refreshed automatically; estimates say how they are made. Nothing here is investment advice.