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Bitcoin price odds from the options market

At 23:20 UTC on 8 November 2026, CryptoKeyhole reads a 2% chance that bitcoin ends above $100,000 at the 25 Dec options expiry, and a 6% chance that it ends below $60,000, from what Deribit's BTC options cost.

The chance bitcoin ends above each price on each options expiry date, read from what Deribit's BTC options cost, with the range they price for each date.

2%chance bitcoin is above $100,000 on 25 Dec 2026

6%chance it is below $60,000 on the same date

$69,470 to $82,493the middle half of the range options price for that date, around a median of $75,959

Chance of ending in each $5,000 band at 08:00 UTC on 25 December 2026; <1% below $40,000 and <1% above $120,000, beyond the strikes listed for that date.

Risk-neutral odds: the chances priced into options, not a forecast. Read from Deribit's BTC options at 23:20 UTC, with bitcoin at $75,402 on Deribit's index; updated every ten minutes.

From our own ten-minute snapshots of Deribit's option chain; refreshed every ten minutes. Last update 8 November 2026, 23:20 UTC

Chance of bitcoin ending above each price

Above13 Nov4 days27 Nov18 days25 Dec46 days29 Jan 20273 months26 Mar 20275 months25 Jun 20278 months24 Sep 202710 months
$200,000<2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%
$180,000<2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%
$160,000<2%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%2%
$150,000<2%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%3%
$140,000<2%<1%<1%<1%1%2%4%
$120,000<2%<1%<1%<1%3%6%9%
$100,000<2%<1%2%5%11%17%21%
$90,000<2%2%9%15%22%27%30%
$85,000<2%7%18%25%30%35%37%
$80,0009%24%34%38%41%43%43%
$75,000 near the price now58%57%54%53%53%52%51%
$70,00093%83%73%68%64%61%59%
$60,000>96%98%94%89%83%77%74%
$50,000>96%>98%98%>93%93%89%85%
$40,000>96%>98%>99%>93%97%95%93%
$35,000>96%>98%>99%>93%98%96%95%

Each cell is the chance that bitcoin is above the price on the left at 08:00 UTC on that expiry date; the chance of ending below is 100% minus it. A cell with < or > lies beyond the strikes Deribit lists for that date, so it is a bound: the chance at the furthest listed strike. Dates: the next weekly expiry, then each month's last-Friday expiry (7 of the 11 expiries fitted at 23:20 UTC; every one is in the API).

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The range options price for each date

Middle 80% (10th to 90th percentile)Middle half (25th to 75th)MedianPrice now
Each expiry's percentiles from its own fitted smile, joined from the price at 23:20 UTC. Expiries whose listed strikes do not reach the 10th or 90th percentile are left out.
Expiry10th25thMedian75th90th
13 Nov 2026$70,981$73,437$75,679$77,778$79,832
27 Nov 2026$67,369$71,896$75,973$79,787$83,607
25 Dec 2026$62,962$69,470$75,959$82,493$89,120
29 Jan 2027$59,241$67,527$76,033$84,862$94,047
26 Mar 2027$54,013$64,795$76,079$88,052$100,824
25 Jun 2027$48,304$61,593$75,907$91,880$109,856
24 Sep 2027$44,219$58,933$75,574$95,070$117,784

Trading at a price before the date

A price can be reached and left again before the expiry, so the chance of trading at a level at some point before 25 Dec is higher than the chance of ending beyond it. For a price that moves without jumps, it is about twice as high (the reflection rule); real prices jump and their volatility changes, so treat that column as a rough guide rather than a price the market sets.

On 25 Dec 2026Ends thereTrades there before (rough)
Above $80,00034%67%
Above $85,00018%36%
Above $90,0009%18%
Below $70,00027%53%
Below $60,0006%13%
Below $50,0002%3%

How the odds have moved

The percentiles of the price options put 30 and 90 days ahead are charted every ten minutes from 14 October 2026 on Plus: Options-Implied Price Percentiles (30 Days) and Options-Implied Price Percentiles (90 Days). The expected move bands, implied volatility and skew charts sit beside them in the same Options folder.

Method and sources

From CryptoKeyhole's own ten-minute snapshots of every listed BTC option on Deribit: each contract's mark implied volatility and Deribit's forward price for its expiry. For each expiry more than a day away we fit a smooth smile through the out-of-the-money marks (a raw SVI curve of total implied variance against log-moneyness, checked for arbitrage), leaving out marks at the venue's price floor.

The chance of ending above a price is how fast a call option's price falls as its strike rises: the price of a digital option that pays if bitcoin ends above that strike. With w(k) the fitted total variance at k = ln(strike / forward) and rates taken as zero, as Deribit's own tickers do, it is N(d2) − n(d2) w'(k) / (2 √w), d2 = −k / √w − √w / 2. The second term carries the smile's slope, which the textbook N(d2) leaves out. Percentiles invert it; a band's chance is the difference between its edges.

These are risk-neutral odds. Options prices include what traders pay to protect themselves, so downside moves usually read as likelier here than they turn out to be, and rallies a little less likely. They cover only Deribit, the largest BTC options venue, and only the strikes it lists for each date: beyond them a figure is shown as a bound, and a percentile beyond them is left out. Fits that fail the arbitrage checks are not used.

The odds, percentiles and bands on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, crediting CryptoKeyhole with a link to this page (licence and reuse).

Questions

What are the odds bitcoin is above $100,000 by 25 Dec?

At 23:20 UTC on 8 November 2026, options price a 2% chance that bitcoin ends above $100,000 at 08:00 UTC on 25 December 2026, and roughly 4% that it trades there at some point before then. That is the risk-neutral chance read from Deribit's option prices, not a forecast.

Is this a price prediction?

No. It is the probability priced into options: what the market charges for each outcome. It includes the premium traders pay for protection, so it leans towards larger and downside moves compared with a forecast.

How is this different from a betting market's odds?

A betting contract prices one yes-or-no question. Options price every strike and date at once, so the odds for any price and date can be read from them, from one of the deepest markets in crypto.

How often does it update?

Every ten minutes, from CryptoKeyhole's own snapshots of Deribit's option chain. A delayed reading says so with its time.

All free tools

Figures on this page are calculated by CryptoKeyhole from our own snapshots of Deribit's public BTC option prices, and refresh automatically. They are the chances priced into options, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.