ETH: Logarithmic Regression Rainbow

Ethereum Logarithmic Regression Rainbow: daily data through 8 Nov 2026.

The logarithmic regression of the ETH price against time since Ethereum's genesis block, drawn as nine coloured bands half a standard deviation of the fit wide, from Deep discount to Blow-off.

Why use it. Bands show at a glance how far the price is from its own long-run trend, in the fit's typical deviation: one colour is a factor of 1.53 in price. How to read it. Read which band the price is in. The trend line is the boundary between Lower trend and Upper trend. A model fitted to history describes that history; it does not predict prices, and the coin's trend is younger and less settled than Bitcoin's.

Calculation. Least squares of log10(price) on log10(days since 30 July 2015), the 3,800 daily closes from 7 August 2015 to 31 December 2025: log10(price) = −4.1721 + 2.1511 × log10(days), σ = 0.3671. Each edge is the line × 10^(kσ), k from −1.5 to +2.5 in steps of 0.5, with a floor line at −2.5σ, as on Bitcoin's rainbow chart. Time is counted from Ethereum's genesis block (30 July 2015); our ETH/USD index starts a week later, so the fit covers the whole traded history. Refitted once a year on every close up to 31 December of the year before (2026 coefficients), then the whole history is redrawn with the new fit. Daily closes are the published ETH daily price chart (CryptoKeyhole's own index of public exchange markets). Lines are drawn for every day at its closing boundary; the position and deviation use the closes and, for the open day, its latest hourly close. Recomputed every half hour.