BTC: Bear Market Recovery

Read the signs that have marked past recoveries from Bitcoin bear markets side by side: where price sits against the cost bases of recent and long-held coins, whether losses are being realized or profits are returning, whether demand is coming back on chain, and whether long-term holders are adding or selling. Each panel is one of our published charts with its own method, coverage and finality.

Bear Market Recovery

Recoveries have tended to follow the same order: price reclaims the average cost of recent buyers, realized losses dry up and turn into profits, demand returns on chain and in the funds, and long-held coins stop moving while new long-term holders build up.

No single reading marks the bottom. Read the sections together: a recovery that shows in the pricing models but not in profitability or demand has been fragile before. The cycle composite score at right condenses seven valuation readings into one position against the last four years.

Every chart is calculated from our own Bitcoin node and our own price index; open any panel for its full method, history and downloads.

BTC: Cycle Composite Score

One score from 0 to 100 that summarises where seven established BTC cycle indicators stand against their own last four years: MVRV Z-Score, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Reserve Risk, the Puell Multiple, the Mayer Multiple, the price against its two-year average (Investor Tool) and the Pi Cycle Top ratio. Each of these indicators has run hot near past cycle highs and cold near past lows, but each has its own scale and noise, and their extremes have shrunk from one cycle to the next. Scoring every input against its own recent history puts them on one scale, and averaging them means no single indicator decides the reading. Around 50 the inputs sit near their four-year averages. 80 or more means that on average they stand at least 1.2 standard deviations above their own four-year norms; 20 or less, at least 1.2 below. These are historical ranges, not forecasts or buy or sell signals: the score can stay in a range for months, and such readings have also come in rallies and sell-offs that did not end a cycle. Because each input is judged only against its last four years, the same score stands for a lower absolute valuation in later, calmer cycles, and a cycle high that is mild next to the one before can come with only a moderate score. The seven inputs are related (most compare price with its own past or with holders' average cost), so they tend to move together.

BTC: AVIV Momentum

The 30-day average of the active investor value ratio relative to its 365-day average. Smooths daily noise to show whether the measure is trending above or below its yearly norm. Above 1 means the recent month runs higher than the past year; below 1, lower. Crossings of 1 mark changes in momentum.

BTC: SOPR Momentum

The 30-day average of SOPR relative to its 365-day average. Smooths daily noise to show whether the measure is trending above or below its yearly norm. Above 1 means the recent month runs higher than the past year; below 1, lower. Crossings of 1 mark changes in momentum.

BTC: Realized Price — Priced Supply

Bitcoin's realized price: the average price at which the coins now held last moved, which is roughly what holders paid on average. It works as the market's average cost: above it, holders are in profit on average; below it, at a loss, which has happened near cycle bottoms. Compare it with the bitcoin price: price above the line means holders are in profit on average, below it a loss. Each coin counts by its amount, so large holdings weigh more. It is not an exchange purchase price.

BTC: Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model

Short-term holder realized price with the 25th and 75th percentile cost levels of young supply. Recent buyers’ average cost often acts as support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends. Price inside the band means recent buyers are mixed; above it most are in profit, below it most are in loss.

BTC: True Market Deviation — AVIV Ratio

The AVIV ratio: price relative to the active-investor price, the average cost of coins weighted by how much they move. Removing the value paid to miners and discounting long-dormant coins gives a cost basis for the investors who are actually active; price far above or below it signals a stretched or a depressed market. Above 1, price trades above the active-investor price, and the higher the reading the more stretched the market; below 1, price is beneath that cost basis, as in deep bear markets. Read it beside the price line.

BTC: Mayer Multiple - Daily Closing Quote

The Mayer Multiple: Bitcoin's price divided by its average price over the last 200 days. It shows how stretched the price is from its long-term trend: very high readings have come with overheated markets, low readings with cheap ones. 1 means the price equals its 200-day average; 2 means twice the average and 0.8 means 80% of it. It is a ratio, not a forecast. Today's value is a labelled partial.

BTC: 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap

The BTC price coloured by how fast its 200-week moving average is rising: the four-week percentage change of the 1,400-day average of daily closes. The 200-week average has been the floor of every bear market so far, and a fast-rising average has accompanied overheated phases. Cool colours mean the long-run average is flat or rising slowly; warm colours mean it is rising fast. Price near the 200-week average has marked deep value in past cycles.

BTC: Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator

Two long moving averages of the BTC price: the 471-day simple average scaled by 0.745, and the 150-day exponential average. The companion of the Pi Cycle Top: in earlier cycles the faster average fell below the scaled slow average close to the cycle low. A cross of the 150-day line below the scaled 471-day line has coincided with past bear-market lows; the gap closing back up shows recovery. A historical pattern with few occurrences, not a rule.

BTC: Apparent Demand (30-Day)

The BTC issued over the last 30 days minus the change in supply that has not moved for at least a year: a supply and inventory view of demand. It borrows commodity accounting. Coins unmoved for a year are inventory and issuance is production; production that does not go into inventory, plus any inventory drawn down, is taken as demand. It summarises whether old coins are being released to the market or new coins are being locked away. Positive values: issuance plus the coins leaving long-term holding exceeded the coins entering it, so the market absorbed that much supply. Negative values: more coins went dormant than were issued, which this model reads as weak demand. The series moves with coins crossing the one-year mark, so watch its direction and turning points rather than single days.

BTC: Entity-Adjusted Apparent Demand (30d)

The new supply of the last 30 days minus the change in the coins long-term holders kept: how much supply the market absorbed beyond what long-term holders locked away. Treats coins held for a long time as inventory and new coins as production; what neither stays in nor goes into inventory was taken up by demand. Keeping acquisition times across moves within an entity stops internal reshuffles from resetting coin age. Positive: new coins plus the coins long-term holders released exceeded the coins that aged into long-term holding, so the market absorbed that much. Negative: more coins aged into long-term holding than were issued, which this view reads as weak demand. Coins crossing the 155-day mark move the series, so watch its direction and turning points.

BTC: Exchange Netflow Volume

Inflow minus outflow for the covered exchanges. The net direction of coins moving to or from exchanges. Positive values mean net deposits; negative values mean net withdrawals.

BTC: US Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Flows (Daily, Issuer Files)

The total daily net flow of the US spot bitcoin ETFs included, in bitcoin. Net ETF demand in bitcoin each day: positive values mean the funds together took in more bitcoin than they paid out. One bar per US trading day, dated the day the holdings are as of. Sum the bars over a period for its net flow; a day missing from an issuer's history is left out rather than filled.

BTC: Spent Outputs Aged ≥1 Hour — SOPR — Priced Spent Outputs

Bitcoin's adjusted SOPR: the value of coins spent in the period divided by what they cost, leaving out coins that moved again within an hour. Dropping the very short-lived coins (mostly exchange and wallet shuffling) gives a cleaner read of whether holders are taking profits or losses. Above 1, coins are spent at a profit on average; below 1, at a loss. In bull markets it has tended to bounce off 1, in bear markets to be capped by it. It is not proof of selling.

BTC: Spent Outputs Aged <155 Days — SOPR — Priced Spent Outputs

Priced disposal value divided by creation-price basis for spent outputs under 155 fixed days old. Compare the marked spending value with recorded basis for the same consumed BTC. Above 1 means priced disposal value exceeds basis; below 1 means it is lower. This is a pooled BTC-value-weighted USD ratio, not a mean of output ratios or evidence of a market sale. No positive priced mass or zero cost gives NULL. Use max(0, spend-header time minus creation-header time). The one-hour threshold includes 3,600 seconds; the older threshold includes 155×86,400 seconds. These are hard output-age groups, not owners. Read unknown-price BTC and price coverage alongside the result. Unobserved history stays unknown; genuine source/price holds and partial/provisional/final labels remain in force.

BTC: Realized Profit — Priced Spent Outputs

Bitcoin's realized profit: the dollar gain on every coin spent above the price at which it last moved, added up for the period. It shows how much profit holders actually took; large spikes have come with euphoric rallies and tops. It only adds gains; losses are in the realized loss chart. Change and transfers between one owner's wallets count too, so it is not proof of selling.

BTC: Realized Loss — Priced Spent Outputs

Bitcoin's realized loss: the dollar loss on every coin spent below the price at which it last moved, added up for the period. It shows how much loss holders actually took; large spikes have come with capitulation and sharp sell-offs. It is shown as a positive amount and only adds losses; gains are in the realized profit chart. Change and transfers between one owner's wallets count too.

BTC: Long-Term Holder Supply Change Rate — Annualized

The annualized 30-day rate of change in supply held in outputs at least 155 days old, as a percentage of spendable supply. When long-term holdings shrink faster than new issuance, old holders are the main source of new market supply. Negative values mean old coins are being spent back into circulation at that yearly pace; positive values include coins simply ageing past 155 days. Compare it with the issuance rate.

BTC: Coin-Age Inactivity-Weighted Supply — 30-Day Change

The change over 30 UTC days in supply weighted by coin-age inactivity. Show whether inactivity-weighted supply has grown or shrunk over the past 30 days. Positive values mean the weighted stock is higher than 30 days earlier; negative values mean it is lower. Changes can arise from issuance, spending, aging and clock movement. This is not purchases, sales, actual cash flows or identified investor position changes. Both endpoints must exist; the first value needs 31 daily timestamps. Daily values.

BTC: Header-Time Age Activity Ratio

The fraction of all signed header-time coin age ever created that has since been destroyed by actual spending. Gauge how much accumulated coin age has been consumed by spending rather than left unspent or retired. A higher ratio means spending has destroyed a larger share of cumulative coin age; the complement is still-unspent plus BIP30-retired age. Header timestamp regressions can move the ratio without any spending. Each value is a block-sampled stock held between observations; a zero denominator stays null. Ages use block header time, clipped at zero per output. This unadjusted output accounting does not identify lost keys, investors or entities.

BTC: Supply-Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed

Bitcoin's coin days destroyed for the day, divided by the supply, so readings from different years compare fairly. It spots unusually old coins moving relative to the size of the supply, which often happens when long-term holders take profit. Higher means more coin age was spent for each bitcoin in existence. It is not the average age of coins spent, and transfers between one owner's wallets count too.