BTC: Bull Market Risk

Gauge how stretched a Bitcoin bull market has become: overall risk readings, valuation against the coins’ cost basis, how much of the supply long-term holders are handing over, the selling pressure their profits create, how hot speculation and leverage run, and how much of the market sits on recent, top-heavy gains. Each panel is one of our published charts.

Bull Market Risk

Late in past bull markets the same things have built up together: prices far above what holders paid, long-term holders spending coins at large profits, short-term buyers owning a growing share of the supply, and leverage and funding running hot.

These panels track each of them. High readings in one section can last for months; several sections stretched at once have marked the more fragile stretches of past cycles.

Every chart is calculated from our own Bitcoin node, our price index and the derivatives venues we collect; open any panel for its method, history and downloads.

BTC: Cycle Composite Score

One score from 0 to 100 that summarises where seven established BTC cycle indicators stand against their own last four years: MVRV Z-Score, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Reserve Risk, the Puell Multiple, the Mayer Multiple, the price against its two-year average (Investor Tool) and the Pi Cycle Top ratio. Each of these indicators has run hot near past cycle highs and cold near past lows, but each has its own scale and noise, and their extremes have shrunk from one cycle to the next. Scoring every input against its own recent history puts them on one scale, and averaging them means no single indicator decides the reading. Around 50 the inputs sit near their four-year averages. 80 or more means that on average they stand at least 1.2 standard deviations above their own four-year norms; 20 or less, at least 1.2 below. These are historical ranges, not forecasts or buy or sell signals: the score can stay in a range for months, and such readings have also come in rallies and sell-offs that did not end a cycle. Because each input is judged only against its last four years, the same score stands for a lower absolute valuation in later, calmer cycles, and a cycle high that is mild next to the one before can come with only a moderate score. The seven inputs are related (most compare price with its own past or with holders' average cost), so they tend to move together.

BTC: Leverage Gauge

A 0-100 reading of how stretched Bitcoin leverage is, hourly: open interest against market cap, funding, the futures basis, trader positioning and the nearest liquidation cluster, each judged against Bitcoin's own past year. Stretched leverage is the fuel for squeezes and liquidation cascades: when positions are large, crowded and close to their liquidation levels, a small move can force a large one. The gauge does not say which way. Low 0-39, elevated 40-59, high 60-74, extreme 75-100. 80 means today's mix is more stretched than most of the past year. In our public record, high and extreme hours were followed by larger moves than usual in either direction (see the leverage gauge backtest). The components chart shows which part drives it.

BTC: MVRV Z-Score Model — Known Basis / Priced History

How far Bitcoin's market value is above or below its realized value (what holders paid for their coins), measured in standard deviations of market value's own history. It is one of the most watched cycle gauges: very high readings came near past market tops, and readings below zero near bottoms, when bitcoin traded below what holders paid. Above zero, the market values bitcoin above what holders paid; below zero, under it. Our guide places readings in zones: below 0, 0 to 2 (moderate), 2 to 5 (elevated), 5 to 7 (high) and 7 and above (extreme). The zones are context from past cycles, not a trading rule.

BTC: NUPL — Priced Supply

Bitcoin's net unrealized profit or loss (NUPL): the share of the coins' market value that is paper profit for their holders, or, below zero, paper loss. It sums up the market's mood in one number, from capitulation when most holders are under water to euphoria when most sit on large gains. Positive means holders are in profit overall, negative at a loss. Our guide's zones: below 0 capitulation, 0 to 0.25 hope and fear, 0.25 to 0.5 optimism and anxiety, 0.5 to 0.75 belief and denial, 0.75 and above euphoria and greed. It counts coins, not people.

BTC: Daily Issuance-Value Multiple — 365 Days

The Puell Multiple: the dollar value of the new BTC mined each day, divided by its average over the past year. Miners sell new coins to pay their costs, so their income against its yearly average shows when mining is unusually lucrative, as late in bull markets, or squeezed, as near bottoms. Above 1, miners earn more than their yearly average; below 1, less. Our guide's zones: below 0.5 very low, 0.5 to 1 below average, 1 to 2 above average, 2 to 4 high, 4 and above extreme. The first year of history has no value.

BTC: Known-Basis Realized Price ×3.2

Known-basis realized price multiplied by a fixed 3.2, in USD. Mark the USD price level that corresponds to a known-basis MVRV of 3.2 for the same population. A BTC price at this line would correspond to a known-basis MVRV of 3.2 for the same priced population. It is a fixed multiple that moves only with realized price, not a forecast or statistical confidence band. Daily from closed UTC days; history begins 2010-07-18. This is a daily known-price valuation of spendable outputs, not entity ownership, actual purchases or sales; unknown-basis BTC is excluded and disclosed separately. Historical prices are retrospective admitted closes with unknown publication time and venue.

BTC: Mayer Multiple - Daily Closing Quote

The Mayer Multiple: Bitcoin's price divided by its average price over the last 200 days. It shows how stretched the price is from its long-term trend: very high readings have come with overheated markets, low readings with cheap ones. 1 means the price equals its 200-day average; 2 means twice the average and 0.8 means 80% of it. It is a ratio, not a forecast. Today's value is a labelled partial.

BTC: True Market Deviation — AVIV Ratio

The AVIV ratio: price relative to the active-investor price, the average cost of coins weighted by how much they move. Removing the value paid to miners and discounting long-dormant coins gives a cost basis for the investors who are actually active; price far above or below it signals a stretched or a depressed market. Above 1, price trades above the active-investor price, and the higher the reading the more stretched the market; below 1, price is beneath that cost basis, as in deep bear markets. Read it beside the price line.

BTC: Long-Term Holder Supply Change Rate — Annualized

The annualized 30-day rate of change in supply held in outputs at least 155 days old, as a percentage of spendable supply. When long-term holdings shrink faster than new issuance, old holders are the main source of new market supply. Negative values mean old coins are being spent back into circulation at that yearly pace; positive values include coins simply ageing past 155 days. Compare it with the issuance rate.

BTC: Spent Outputs Aged ≥155 Days — SOPR — Priced Spent Outputs

Priced disposal value divided by creation-price basis for spent outputs at least 155 fixed days old. Compare the marked spending value with recorded basis for the same consumed BTC. Above 1 means priced disposal value exceeds basis; below 1 means it is lower. This is a pooled BTC-value-weighted USD ratio, not a mean of output ratios or evidence of a market sale. No positive priced mass or zero cost gives NULL. Use max(0, spend-header time minus creation-header time). The one-hour threshold includes 3,600 seconds; the older threshold includes 155×86,400 seconds. These are hard output-age groups, not owners. Read unknown-price BTC and price coverage alongside the result. Unobserved history stays unknown; genuine source/price holds and partial/provisional/final labels remain in force.

BTC: Spent Outputs Aged ≥155 Days — Realized Profit — Priced Spent Outputs

Positive marked gain on priced spent outputs for spent outputs at least 155 fixed days old. Compare USD gain magnitudes across spent value with both admitted prices. This is not actual exchange proceeds or economic profit. Change and self-spends remain. Zero gain is valid when positive priced mass exists; absent positive priced mass is NULL, including an empty flow. Use max(0, spend-header time minus creation-header time). The one-hour threshold includes 3,600 seconds; the older threshold includes 155×86,400 seconds. These are hard output-age groups, not owners. Read unknown-price BTC and price coverage alongside the result. Unobserved history stays unknown; genuine source/price holds and partial/provisional/final labels remain in force.

BTC: Supply Last Active 1+ Years by Age Band

Spendable BTC unmoved for at least one year, stacked by how long it has been dormant. Shows how the long-held stock is distributed across holding periods and which bands grow or shrink. Each colour is one age band and the top of the stack is total 1y+ supply. Band growth means coins aged into it; a sudden drop means older coins were spent.

BTC: Sell-Side Risk — Known-Basis 15-Day Mean

The 15-day simple mean of daily known-basis realized profit plus loss magnitude as a fraction of known-basis realized capitalization. Compare the size of daily repricing flow with the retained creation cost of the known-basis stock. The unit is a fraction: 0.001 is 0.1 percent and 0.0075 is 0.75 percent; such levels are descriptive, not validated trading thresholds. This compares repricing flow with retained creation cost, not total spent USD. Unknown basis is excluded from both populations, and no full-market or change-adjusted claim is made. The mean needs all 15 adjacent days and a positive denominator, so gaps stay gaps. Only sealed UTC days are defined; provisional values keep their label and open days are unknown.

BTC: Long-Term Holder Sell-side Risk Ratio

Realized profit plus realized loss of the long-term cohort as a share of its realized capitalization. Measures how much value the cohort is locking in, in either direction, relative to its stored capital. High values mark heavy profit- or loss-taking and volatile conditions; low values mark consolidation.

BTC: Exchange Inflow Volume (Total)

BTC moved into the covered exchanges' wallets from outside them. Large inflows often precede selling. Compare spikes with price; sustained high inflows show coins arriving to be traded.

BTC: Whale Deposits to Exchanges (Volume)

BTC arriving at the covered exchanges in single deposits of at least 1,000 BTC. Measures the size of whale deposits. Rising values mean more coins arriving in large blocks.

BTC: Binance Perpetual Funding Rate

Funding rate settled on Binance's BTCUSDT perpetual, as an eight-hour equivalent in percent. Funding is what longs pay shorts (or the reverse) to keep the perpetual near the spot price: persistently high funding marks crowded, expensive longs. Above zero longs pay shorts; spikes far above the usual 0.01% mark euphoric leverage, deeply negative funding marks crowded shorts. One venue's settled rate, with its full history, for tests over many years.

BTC: Futures Open Interest

Total USD value of open BTC perpetual and dated futures positions across the venues we collect. Rising open interest means more leverage is entering the market; falling open interest means positions are closing. Read the level and its changes alongside price: price up with open interest up suggests new leveraged longs or shorts.

BTC: UTXOs Aged <155 Days — NUPL — Priced Supply

Bitcoin's short-term holder NUPL: the share of the market value of coins that moved within the last 155 days that is paper profit, or, below zero, paper loss. It shows the mood of recent buyers, who react fastest to price: deep negative readings have come with capitulation, high readings with euphoria. Positive means this group is in profit overall, negative at a loss. It counts coins, not people.

BTC: UTXOs Aged <155 Days — Relative Unrealized Profit — Known Basis

Bitcoin's short-term holders' paper profit as a share of what their coins are worth today. It shows how much profit recent buyers sit on, relative to their position: high readings mean many could sell at a gain. 0.1 means the paper profit is 10% of the coins' current value. Read it beside the same group's relative unrealized loss; the profit minus the loss is the group's NUPL.

BTC: Supply in Profit — Known-Basis Share of All Spendable BTC

Percent supply in profit: the share of all spendable BTC now worth more than the price at which it last moved. Near 100%, most holders are in profit and selling pressure can build; deep drops have come near cycle bottoms, when much of the supply was under water. The rest is not all at a loss: it also holds coins at their purchase price and coins whose purchase price we don't know, so this share is a lower bound. Read it beside priced supply coverage.

BTC: Relative Unrealized Profit — Known Basis

Unrealized profit of known-basis spendable outputs, relative to the current value of that same priced supply. Gauge how far above creation-day cost known-basis outputs are valued, in proportion to their current value. A value of 0.1 means the unrealized profit equals 10% of the priced supply’s current value; values are not clamped. Unknown-basis coins are excluded from both sides, so this is not scaled by all issued coins or whole-network market value and is not a lower bound; read the unpriced supply and creation-price coverage series alongside. This value minus relative unrealized loss is the known-basis NUPL ratio, within rounding. This is output cost basis, not investor identity or a forecast.

BTC: UTXOs Aged <155 Days — Supply in Profit / Loss — Known Basis

BTC of known-basis spendable outputs younger than 155 days that are in profit, divided by the BTC of those in loss. Compare how much young known-basis supply sits above versus below its creation-day cost. Above 1 means more of this young known-basis supply is in profit than in loss; below 1 means the opposite. This is a ratio of current BTC stocks, not realized USD profit or loss, traded volume, output counts or a forecast. At-cost and unknown-basis supply enter neither side; read the young cohort’s unpriced supply and creation-price coverage alongside. Zero loss supply gives no value, never infinity. Open or unsealed days are undefined.

BTC: UTXOs Aged ≥155 Days — Relative Unrealized Profit — Known Basis

Bitcoin's long-term holders' paper profit as a share of what their coins are worth today. It shows how much profit patient holders sit on: very high readings have come near cycle tops, when long-term holders sell into strength. 0.5 means the paper profit is half of the coins' current value. Read it beside the same group's relative unrealized loss; the profit minus the loss is the group's NUPL.