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SOPR: are sellers in profit?

Lesson 7 of 10, intermediate, about 2 minutes.

SOPR, the Spent Output Profit Ratio, divides what coins were worth when they moved by what they were worth when they last moved before that. It looks only at the coins that moved in the period.

Above 1, the coins moving today are on average in profit. Below 1, they're being spent at a loss.

The 1.0 line

People don't like selling at a loss. In a healthy uptrend, dips towards 1 tend to dry up because holders refuse to sell below cost, so 1 acts like a floor. In a downtrend the same psychology flips it into a ceiling: rallies back to 1 give under-water holders their chance to get out even.

Adjusted and cohort versions

Adjusted SOPR removes very young coins, which often are just a transfer between someone's own wallets and pull the figure towards 1. Splitting SOPR by holder age is more useful still: long-term holders spending at huge profit tells a different story from new buyers selling at a small loss.

Relative unrealised profit

NUPL, net unrealised profit or loss, is SOPR's static cousin. Instead of what was realised today, it asks what the whole market would realise if everyone sold now.

Try it on live data

Check yourself

Answer all 3 to finish the lesson.

1. SOPR above 1 means…
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Coins moving today are on average in profit. SOPR compares a coin's value when it moved with its value when it last moved.

2. Why does SOPR often hold at 1 in an uptrend?
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Holders tend not to sell at a loss, so selling dries up near cost. It's behaviour, not a rule: selling pressure fades as coins approach break-even.

3. What does NUPL measure that SOPR doesn't?
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Unrealised profit across all coins, moved or not. SOPR looks at coins that actually moved; NUPL looks at the whole supply.