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Implied volatility

Lesson 4 of 9, intermediate, about 2 minutes.

Implied volatility, or IV, is the volatility an option's price implies. Feed the market price into the pricing model and work backwards: IV is the number that makes the model agree with the market. It's quoted as an annualised percentage.

From IV to a daily move

Volatility scales with the square root of time, so a rough one-day move is IV divided by the square root of 365, or about 19. At 60% IV, expect moves of about 3.1% a day, one standard deviation either way.

Implied versus realised

Realised volatility is what actually happened. Implied tends to sit above realised on average because sellers demand a premium for taking on risk. When IV is unusually high, options are expensive; a calm period afterwards rewards the sellers, a violent one the buyers.

What moves it

IV rises ahead of known events, expiries of size and after sharp falls, and it tends to fall during grinding rallies. Market-wide volatility indices average the options market into one number, which is a good way to compare one week with another.

Try it on live data

Check yourself

Answer all 3 to finish the lesson.

1. Roughly what daily move does 76% IV imply?
Show the answer

About 4%. 76 ÷ 19 is 4: about 4% a day, one standard deviation.

2. Why does implied volatility usually sit above realised?
Show the answer

Sellers want to be paid for the risk they take. That gap is the volatility risk premium.

3. When does IV tend to rise?
Show the answer

After sharp falls and ahead of known events. Uncertainty and demand for protection both push option prices up.