ERA: Value at Risk 95% (1 Day)

Caldera Value at Risk 95% (1 Day) was -6.59% on 8 Nov 2026 (latest daily value).

The one-day loss ERA exceeded on only 5% of days in the last year (historical value at risk).

Why use it. A plain measure of how bad a bad day has been. How to read it. -6% means about one day in twenty fell by 6% or more over the last year.

Calculation. 100 x the 19th lowest of the last 365 daily returns (19 = the lowest 5%, rounded up). Historical, not a model or a forecast. From CryptoKeyhole's own US dollar price chart of ERA, closed periods only. Returns are 24-hour returns r = close / close 24 hours earlier - 1; daily values use the closes of UTC days, hourly values recompute the same statistic at every hour from the closes 24, 48 ... hours before it, so a day's last hour gives its daily value wherever the hourly closes are complete. A window of N days needs N + 1 closes exactly a day apart: a missing close leaves every window that needs it empty, nothing is filled in. The open UTC day shows a labelled partial at the latest completed hour. History starts once the price chart has the window's closes; it is a description of the past, not a forecast.