BTC: Fixed Difficulty Model - USD per BTC

Bitcoin Fixed Difficulty Model - USD per BTC was $38,964.97 on 7 Nov 2026 (latest daily value).

A model price for Bitcoin from mining difficulty: a published formula linking network difficulty to the coins issued so far, in US dollars per bitcoin.

Why use it. Difficulty tracks the computing power securing Bitcoin, which follows what miners spend; the model turns that into a price to set against the market's. How to read it. The model price rises with difficulty and falls as more coins are issued. Price well above it has meant a hot market, price near or below it a cheap one. It is a fixed statistical comparison, not a measured electricity, hardware or operating cost, and not a forecast.

Calculation. Limits: the formula was fitted by others on data up to 14 September 2022; we do not refit it and claim no fit quality on our data. Exact definition: A fixed difficulty-based model price in USD per BTC, from a published calibration on network difficulty divided by cumulative issued supply. The model rises with difficulty and falls as issued supply grows. It is a fixed historical statistical relationship, not measured electricity, hardware or operating costs, and not a forecast. The calibration used daily data through 2022-09-14; coefficients are not refitted to our data and no fit quality is claimed. It needs no market quote. Missing inputs remain gaps, with no carry or interpolation; open days are null. exp(10.2560 + 0.5250 × ln(relative difficulty)) / actual cumulative issued BTC, with both inputs positive. Relative difficulty is the accepted floating-point native estimate, already estimated-hash difficulty divided by 2^32, so no second conversion is applied. Issued supply includes genesis and later lost or unspendable issuance, not free float. Daily observations use the highest canonical block assigned to the UTC header-time day on our own validated Bitcoin Core node, with 40-significant-digit Decimal arithmetic.