BTC: Fixed Model / Ending Price - 14-Day Median Premium

Bitcoin Fixed Model / Ending Price - 14-Day Median Premium was -0.498 on 7 Nov 2026 (latest daily value).

How far Bitcoin's difficulty model price sits above or below the market price, smoothed with a 14-day median: 0.1 means the model price is 10% above the market price.

Why use it. It shows at a glance whether the market price looks cheap or expensive against the mining-based model. How to read it. Above zero, the model price is above the market price (the market looks cheap against mining); below zero, the market price is above the model (the market looks rich). It is a fixed statistical comparison, not a measured electricity, hardware or operating cost, and not a forecast. Today's value appears once the day closes.

Calculation. Exact definition: The 14-day median of the fixed difficulty model price divided by the admitted ending market price, minus one. Positive values mean the model price is above the market price and negative values mean below; 0.1 means 10% above. This is deliberately not the reciprocal price-to-model ratio. With 14 values, the median averages the central two. It is a fixed historical statistical comparison, not measured mining cost or a forecast. Missing inputs remain unknown, with no carry or interpolation; open days are null and earlier prices are retrospective. For each UTC day, divide the fixed difficulty-model USD/BTC price by the positive admitted USD/BTC quote at the ending boundary, D+1 00:00 UTC, and subtract one; then take the median of 14 consecutive daily values. Model coefficients are not refitted to our data. Daily observations use the highest canonical block assigned to the UTC header-time day; prices before 2026-10-03 are retrospective daily closes, later ones admitted prospective quotes. Decimal arithmetic at 40 significant digits.