BTC: Fixed Model Premium Median - Negative

Bitcoin Fixed Model Premium Median - Negative was -0.498 on 7 Nov 2026 (latest daily value).

The 14-day median gap between Bitcoin's difficulty model price and the market price, shown only on days when the model price is below the market price.

Why use it. It picks out the stretches when the market price ran above the mining-based model, historically the hotter periods. How to read it. Values are below zero: -0.2 means the model price was 20% below the market price. Other days are blank, not zero. It is one half of the premium chart, shown apart for colour.

Calculation. Exact definition: The 14-day median model-price premium shown only on days when it is strictly negative, meaning the model price is below the market price. Values below zero mean the median model price was below the market price; -0.2 means 20% below. Days at exactly zero or with a positive premium are blank, not zero, and no second smoothing is applied. This is a display split of one series and a fixed historical statistical comparison, not measured mining cost or a forecast. Missing inputs remain unknown; open days are null and earlier prices are retrospective. Keep the 14-day median of (fixed-model USD/BTC price / positive admitted ending USD/BTC quote - 1) where it is below zero; otherwise undefined. The parent takes 14 consecutive daily ratios, with the even median averaging the central two values and quotes taken at D+1 00:00 UTC. Coefficients are not refitted to our data. Daily observations use the highest canonical block assigned to the UTC header-time day, with 40-significant-digit Decimal arithmetic.