ETH: HODL Cave
Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Plus.
How ETH's returns have spread for every holding period: for each holding time from one day to about ten years, the worst, best and in-between outcomes of every past window of that length, as multiples of the buying price.
Why use it. Shows how holding time has changed the odds for past buyers: short holds spread widely around break-even, while the lines climb above 1x as the holding period grows. It is the shape of history, not a forecast. How to read it. Holding period runs across, the return multiple up (logarithmic; 1x is break-even). Each line is a percentile of the windows of that length: at three years, a 25th-percentile line at 3x means a quarter of all past three-year holds returned less than 3x and three quarters returned more. The shaded bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of outcomes, the outer lines the worst and best. Hover for the share of windows that ended higher.
Calculation. For a holding period of d days, every start day i with a close d days later gives one window and its multiple close(i + d) / close(i); the lines are the 0th (worst), 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, 90th, 95th and 100th (best) percentiles of those multiples, interpolated linearly between ranked windows. Every holding period is drawn up to three years, then every seventh day; a holding period is drawn only while it has at least 365 windows, so the longest shown is about a year shorter than the price history. Windows overlap, so neighbouring holding periods share most of their windows, and the longest periods rest on few independent cycles. Fees, taxes and the timing of buys within a day are not modelled. The chart's data table and downloads list the daily closes used; the curve itself downloads from the chart. Source: the daily ETH/USD closes of the price index this site uses for ETH, from public exchange candles, from 7 August 2015; windows that end today use the latest hourly price as a partial close. The curve is recomputed every hour.