BTC: AVIV Ratio Z-Scores

Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Plus.

How far AVIV sits from its own average, in standard deviations, measured in two lines: against all of its history so far and against its last two years. AVIV is the market value divided by the cost basis of the coins that are actually active (the true market mean, which leaves out long-dormant supply).

Why use it. AVIV strips out coins that have not moved for years, so it tracks the cost basis of the money that trades; its z-score shows how far the market sits above or below that active cost basis by the standards of its own history. How to read it. 0 is an ordinary reading; +2 or more and −2 or less have been uncommon, but the readings are not normally distributed, so read the levels against the chart's own history rather than as probabilities. The all-history line weighs every cycle equally and moves slowly; the two-year line judges the reading against the current regime, so it swings faster and reaches its extremes more often. A z-score describes how unusual a reading is, not where price goes next.

Calculation. Expanding z = (x − the mean of every daily value from the first to the day) ÷ their population standard deviation; it starts once a year of values exists, uses nothing after the day, so past values never change as history grows, and a missing day would end it. Two-year z = (x − the mean of the last 730 daily values, the current day included) ÷ their population standard deviation; a missing day leaves the 730 days that contain it empty. x is the published daily AVIV; the unit is standard deviations. Calculated from our own validated Bitcoin Core node history at the accepted daily closes.