BTC: Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator

Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Plus.

The P&L index minus its own 365-day average: whether the market's profit picture is above or below its trend of the last year.

Why use it. Bull markets keep profits rising above their trend and bear markets below it; the sign of the gap is a simple regime reading, and its turns mark the changes. How to read it. Above 0: a bull phase by this measure; below 0: a bear phase. The deeper the reading, the stronger the phase. It describes the regime, not where the price goes next.

Calculation. Indicator = P&L index − the mean of its last 365 daily values. P&L index = the mean of three z-scores, each against its own last 365 daily values: MVRV, NUPL and the ratio of long-term to short-term holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR ÷ STH-SOPR). Calculated from our own validated Bitcoin Core node history at the accepted daily closes.