BTC: Dynamic Range NVT

Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Plus.

NVT Signal with a range that moves with its own last two years: its two-year geometric mean and two standard deviations either side on a log scale.

Why use it. Fixed NVT thresholds stop working as on-chain usage changes; a dynamic range judges each reading against the recent regime instead. How to read it. NVT Signal above the upper range: valuation stretched against on-chain value moved, by recent standards; below the lower range: cheap against it. Inside the range the reading is ordinary. Not a forecast.

Calculation. Range = exp(m ± 2s), where m and s are the mean and population standard deviation of the natural log of the last 730 daily NVT Signal values (a log scale keeps the range positive for a ratio that cannot fall below zero). NVT Signal is the published one (market value ÷ the 90-day mean of on-chain output value), from our own node. Calculated from our own validated Bitcoin Core node history at the accepted daily closes.