BTC: Market Regime Score
Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Plus.
One daily score from 0 to 100 for how risk-on the Bitcoin market is, from ten lenses weighted equally: macro liquidity, capital flows, holder behaviour, on-chain capital, leverage, altcoin rotation, cycle position, and the price's own trend, momentum and structure.
Why use it. Single indicators often disagree. The score shows how many of them run hot or cold at the same time, each against its own last two years, so a market where liquidity, flows, holders, leverage and price all lean the same way stands out. How to read it. Bands: 0–19 Risk-off, 20–39 Defensive, 40–59 Neutral, 60–79 Risk-on, 80–100 Overheated. Two lines are drawn and kept apart. The published record is each day's closing score exactly as we published it at the time, from 7 November 2026, never revised. The back-calculated line recomputes every day with today's method, weights and inputs as they now stand: it shows how the method reads the past, not what was published then, and it starts on the first day seven of the ten lenses have a reading.
Calculation. Each input is ranked against its own readings of the trailing 730 days (at least 365 of them) as a percentile from 0 to 100, turned so that higher means more risk-on; the leverage gauge, the altcoin season index, the cycle composite and the price's position in its 90-day range are already 0 to 100 and are used as they are. Inputs: Fed net liquidity's 90-day change (macro); the US spot ETF net flows over 30 days, the 30-day change in stablecoin supply on Ethereum and the 30-day exchange netflow, withdrawals scoring higher (capital flows); short-term holder MVRV, SOPR averaged over 7 days and the long-term holder supply change rate, selling scoring higher (holder behaviour); the 30-day change in realized capital and the share of supply in profit (on-chain capital); the leverage gauge (leverage); the altcoin season index (altcoin rotation); the cycle composite (cycle position); the price against its 200-day average and the 50-day against the 200-day average (price trend); the 30-day price change (momentum); the distance below the 365-day high and the position in the 90-day range (market structure). A lens is the mean of its inputs with a reading; a reading stands for up to 3 days after it (10 for Fed net liquidity, 5 for the ETF flows). The score is the mean of the lenses with a reading, each weighted 10% and renormalised over them, and needs at least 7 of the 10. The published record takes each closed day's score at the first run after the day's closing price is in, with the method and weights of that time; a later change of method or weights never rewrites it, and a day that was not published stays empty. Inputs are CryptoKeyhole's own published charts and the site's admitted BTC/USD daily closes (from The Bitcoin Time Machine, CC BY 4.0, until 2 October 2026, then quotes recorded from Alternative.me). A BTC valuation chart held for a few minutes while a new hourly quote is repriced is taken from its last good reading. Back-calculated values for closed days are provisional and change when an input is revised; published-record values are final and never change. The open day is a partial, recomputed every 10 minutes.