BTC: Daily Opportunity Component — Native UTXOs

Bitcoin Daily Opportunity Component — Native UTXOs was 24,845.93 USD-days/BTC on 7 Nov 2026 (latest daily value).

Each day's addition to the HODL bank behind Bitcoin's Reserve Risk: the day's price minus the 30-day median of the price times supply-adjusted coin days destroyed, in USD-days per bitcoin.

Why use it. Reserve Risk sets the price against the opportunity long-term holders give up by not selling; this is that daily opportunity, before it is added up. How to read it. Positive days, when few old coins move, add to the bank: holders' confidence in not selling. Negative days, when old coins move heavily, take away from it. The first value is 20 August 2010. Moves between a holder's own addresses count as spending.

Calculation. Exact definition: The daily signed opportunity component: ending BTC/USD quote times one day minus the 30-day median of quote times supply-adjusted CDD. Daily only, in USD-days per BTC; values can be negative and stay negative. The explicit one-day scale puts both terms in the same unit and is not an extra measured duration. The first value is 2010-08-20, using 2010-07-22 through 2010-08-20. Missing or invalid input anywhere in the 30-day window gives null, with no skipping or filling. Change and self-transfers remain in CDD. Open or MTP-unsealed days are null and six-block finality propagates. Descriptive only, not a probability or trading threshold. Price × one day minus the median, over exactly 30 adjacent UTC days including the output day, of price × supply-adjusted CDD; an even median is the mean of the central two values. Supply-adjusted CDD is coin-days destroyed divided by actual cumulative issued BTC, from our own validated Bitcoin Core node. A positive admitted D+1 00:00 UTC ending quote is required, even on zero-destruction days: retrospective previous-day closes before 2026-10-03, retained prospective quotes within 15 minutes afterwards. Uses 40-significant-digit Decimal arithmetic.