BTC: Stock-to-Flow Model Price — 2019 Calibration

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Price — 2019 Calibration was $858,070.89 on 7 Nov 2026 (latest daily value).

The Bitcoin stock-to-flow model price: the price the 2019 stock-to-flow model gives for Bitcoin's supply and its yearly issuance.

Why use it. The model ties the price to scarcity and steps up at each halving; it was widely followed in the 2017 to 2021 cycles. How to read it. Compare the price with the model line. It is a fixed 2019 fit, not fair value or a forecast, and the price has spent long stretches far from it.

Calculation. Exact definition: A modeled USD/BTC price from fixed March 2019 stock-to-flow coefficients applied to actual Bitcoin issuance. Higher values follow a higher ratio of stock to one-year flow under this model. These are fixed coefficients, not a new fit, confidence interval, demand model, fair value or forecast. Actual issuance includes genesis and later lost or unspendable coins, with no assumed lost supply subtracted. Values before March 2019 are retrospective applications of later-published coefficients. A missing issuance row invalidates every affected year window; open or unsealed days are undefined, and sealed values keep six-block finality. S = cumulative actual issued BTC at the last canonical block of the UTC day; F = signed net actual issuance (claimed coinbase minus fees) over 365 adjacent days including that day; both must be positive. Modeled price = exp(14.6 + 3.3 × ln(S/F)) / S, where the intercept carries the USD denomination. Rolling sums use guarded decimal accumulation; logarithm, exponential and division use 40 significant digits, half-even. No price input. Uses local canonical Bitcoin data from our own validated Bitcoin Core node.