BTC: Price / Power-Law Model — 2019 Calibration

Bitcoin Price / Power-Law Model — 2019 Calibration was 0.4 on 7 Nov 2026 (latest daily value).

Bitcoin's price against its power-law trend: the daily price divided by the price of a 2019 power-law model.

Why use it. The ratio shows how far the price has run above or fallen below its long-run trend, a gauge of cycle extremes. How to read it. 1 means the price is on the trend line; well above 1 has marked cycle tops and below 1 the cheapest periods. It is one specific fit, not fair value.

Calculation. Exact definition: The admitted daily ending BTC/USD price divided by the price modeled by a published 2019 power-law calibration for the same day. 1 means price equals this specific calibration, not economic fair value; above 1 is above the curve and below 1 is below it. Both price and model must be present and positive. Historical prices are retrospective daily closes with unknown original release time and vintage; there is no daily carry or hourly reconstruction. Open or unsealed days are undefined. Closed days stay provisional because the BTC/USD quote they divide can still be revised; the model line itself is final. Earlier model points apply coefficients published in 2019 retrospectively. This is not a forecast. ckh.DailyBoundaryPriceUSD / ckh.PowerLawModel2019 at the same UTC ending boundary. The model is 10^(-17.01593313) × d^(5.84509376), where d counts whole days from 2009-01-03 00:00 UTC to the day's ending boundary. Prices are admitted daily closing quotes before 2026-10-03 and admitted prospective quotes at or before the boundary within 15 minutes afterward. Uses 40-significant-digit half-even arithmetic. Native history from our own validated Bitcoin Core node.