BTC: Reserve Risk — Four-Year Position Score

Bitcoin Reserve Risk — Four-Year Position Score was 27.85 on 7 Nov 2026 (latest daily value).

Where Reserve Risk stands within its own last four years, on a 0–100 scale: one of the seven equally weighted inputs of the Cycle Composite Score.

Why use it. Putting Reserve Risk on the same scale as the other inputs makes readings from different indicators and different cycles comparable, and shows which inputs drive the composite. How to read it. Around 50 the value is near its four-year average; 80 or more means at least 1.2 standard deviations above it and 20 or less at least 1.2 below; 0 and 100 are the limits, at two standard deviations. These are historical ranges, not forecasts or buy or sell signals, and because the window moves, the same reading stands for a lower absolute value in later, calmer cycles than in earlier ones.

Calculation. 50 + 25 × z, limited to 0–100, where z is the natural logarithm of Reserve Risk minus the mean of its last 1,461 daily values (four years, the current day included), divided by their population standard deviation. Only values up to each day are used. The series starts once four years of values exist.