BTC: Metcalfe Price Valuation Bands

Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Plus.

The price bitcoin would have if its market value stood at the typical multiple of its squared active addresses (Metcalfe's law), with bands at a half and a quarter of it and twice and four times it.

Why use it. If a network is worth the square of its users, the price that fits today's activity is a reference level: the price far above it has meant valuation running ahead of use, far below it use running ahead of price. How to read it. Read the price against the lines on a log scale. The middle line is the price at the four-year median multiple; the outer lines are fixed multiples of it, not fitted to history. They are reference levels, not forecasts.

Calculation. Metcalfe price = the day's close × (the median, over the last 1,461 days, of market value ÷ (7-day mean of active addresses)²) ÷ (today's market value ÷ (7-day mean of active addresses)²): the close the day would have if that multiple were at its four-year median. Bands: × 0.25, 0.5, 2 and 4. Active addresses are counted from our own Bitcoin node (addresses that sent or received in the day); market value is the issued supply at the daily close. Calculated from our own validated Bitcoin Core node history at the accepted daily closes.