BTC: AHR999 Index

Bitcoin AHR999 Index was 0.43 on 7 Nov 2026 (latest daily value).

A two-part valuation index for BTC: how far the price sits above the geometric mean of its last 200 daily closes, multiplied by how far it sits above a fixed long-run growth line.

Why use it. It folds a short-term cost (what a steady daily buyer paid over about 200 days) and the long-run growth trend into one number. Its author used it to judge when steady buying was cheap; low readings have come near past cycle lows and very high ones near past highs. How to read it. Below 0.45 is the zone its author called cheap enough to buy the bottom, 0.45 to 1.2 the zone for steady buying, and above 1.2 the price is stretched against both its recent cost and its growth line. With these closes the cycle highs of 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025 stood at 587.07, 98.75, 25.77, 3.80 and 1.16, and the cycle lows of 2011, 2015, 2018, 2022 and the current cycle so far at 0.13, 0.20, 0.28, 0.27 and 0.28: each cycle high read lower than the one before, so a fixed top level is reached less and less often. The growth line was fitted by the index's author to the prices of earlier years: it describes that history and does not predict prices.

Calculation. AHR999 = (close ÷ the geometric mean of the last 200 daily closes, the current day included) × (close ÷ growth estimate). The geometric mean is e raised to the average natural logarithm of the 200 closes. Growth estimate = 10^(5.84 × log10(days) − 17.01), the index author's fixed line, never refitted here. Time is counted in days since 3 January 2009 (the genesis block's day is day 1), at each period's closing boundary, as in the site's other power-law charts. A missing close leaves every 200-day window holding it without a value, so the first value is on 1 February 2011. The open day uses the latest hourly quote as its close. BTC/USD prices are the site's admitted daily closes: from The Bitcoin Time Machine (CC BY 4.0) until 2 October 2026, then quotes recorded from Alternative.me at each boundary (within 15 minutes, never carried forward). Daily closes start on 17 July 2010; hourly quotes start on 3 October 2026. Values for closed periods are provisional, like the BTC closes they come from, and change if a close is revised. The open period is a partial value from the latest hourly quote, updated every hour.