BTC: 200-Week Average Quantile Price Bands

Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Plus.

BTC price levels at which the 200-week multiple would sit at its 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentile of all its history so far: the 200-week (1,400-day) average of daily closes times those percentiles.

Why use it. Mapping the ratio's own history back to prices turns "unusually high" into a price: above the 95th percentile line the 200-week multiple is higher than on 95% of all days so far, below the 5th lower than on 95%. How to read it. The 25th to 75th percentile lines hold the middle half of all past days. The lines move with the 200-week (1,400-day) average of daily closes and spread slowly as history adds extremes; later cycles have stayed further inside them. They are reference levels from history, not forecasts.

Calculation. For each day: every daily 200-week multiple so far, the day included, is sorted, and the q-th percentile is interpolated linearly between neighbouring values; the line = the 200-week (1,400-day) average of daily closes on the day × that percentile. Only data up to the day is used, and the lines start once 730 daily values of the ratio exist. The base is the 1,400-day simple average of the daily closes. Realized prices are computed from our own validated Bitcoin Core node: each unspent coin is valued at the price at the start of the UTC day it was created. BTC/USD closes are the site's admitted daily closes (The Bitcoin Time Machine, CC BY 4.0, until 2 October 2026, then quotes recorded from Alternative.me). Values for closed days are provisional, like their inputs, and change if an input is revised; the open day is a partial from the latest hourly quote and the inputs' own partials, recomputed every ten minutes.