BTC: True Market Mean Quantile Price Bands

Shown as its 2019–2022 sample; the latest readings and full history are included with Plus.

BTC price levels at which the AVIV ratio would sit at its 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentile of all its history so far: the true market mean (active investor price) times those percentiles.

Why use it. Mapping the ratio's own history back to prices turns "unusually high" into a price: above the 95th percentile line the AVIV ratio is higher than on 95% of all days so far, below the 5th lower than on 95%. How to read it. The 25th to 75th percentile lines hold the middle half of all past days. The lines move with the true market mean (active investor price) and spread slowly as history adds extremes; later cycles have stayed further inside them. They are reference levels from history, not forecasts.

Calculation. For each day: every daily AVIV ratio so far, the day included, is sorted, and the q-th percentile is interpolated linearly between neighbouring values; the line = the true market mean (active investor price) on the day × that percentile. Only data up to the day is used, and the lines start once 730 daily values of the ratio exist. The base is the published chart of the true market mean (active investor price). Realized prices are computed from our own validated Bitcoin Core node: each unspent coin is valued at the price at the start of the UTC day it was created. BTC/USD closes are the site's admitted daily closes (The Bitcoin Time Machine, CC BY 4.0, until 2 October 2026, then quotes recorded from Alternative.me). Values for closed days are provisional, like their inputs, and change if an input is revised; the open day is a partial from the latest hourly quote and the inputs' own partials, recomputed every ten minutes.